The Jacobite 2020

Your absolutely right we have a long long way to go in this. I remember passing through the Highlands on the HST farewell tour in December and I fear it will be a long number of years before I will be back there. The biggest fear is that there will be no tourism left when it is allowed to resume.

 

It won’t be years and Scotland will always have tourists.
I know you have problems but try and look at the positive, the Scottish government are already planning for the resumption of tourism

 

That's not the case. Mass Gatherings (such as a football match) are banned for the foreseeable future. Whether that is 6 months, 12 months or longer I just don't know. If mass gatherings are banned how come tourism is safe. My big question is how can tourism resume (in limited numbers) whilst there is no vaccine?

 

That’s a good question when we don’t know how this virus will be suppressed, or what accommodation we may have to reach with it. But with the foreseeable future currently measured in days and weeks as governments try to work out the devilish choices in front of them, only a fool would place a bet on when tourism will start to be possible.


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Again, we return to a normal life at some point. When we reach that exact stage of normality we knew in 2019 is difficult to say, but the land that is Scotland will still be in the new normal and the reasons to visit will still be there.

Please don't view the current pandemic as some sort of 'end of world' scenario where we must all lockup, normal will never happen again and the world will be post-apocalyptic. The reasons for the lockdown now is, in best attempt, to keep the numbers of deaths down and give the best chance of coping that the Healthcare system can afford. It's a stalling tactic in hope of either drugs to help combat the effects of the disease being discovered, or a full preventative vaccine. It's not a permanent way of life. Indeed, if you had listened to Nicola Sturgeon's announcement about gradual lifting of lockdown measures, she echoed the point many of us have made about the lockdown having as many negative effects as positive of which there is a balancing issue and that will see saw ever more extreme over longer durations.

Think of the world you knew in 2019. Can you recall how many Plague or Pandemic type situations the world had to suffer through to get to that stage? We are once again at one of those situations. The world will carry on, the economy will slowly recover and generations will look back on this the same way we do with 'Spanish Flu' or the 'Black Death' (to be extreme). It'll be a section in the history books, that the future will occasionally reference in among their busy lives....

Don't get me wrong. The losses are devastating, there are lessons to be learned here and hard truths will come to the surface if they already haven't. But the world, as in human society, always moves on having adapted and overcome.

Now if we want a more endangering world ending prospect to discuss, global warming and environmental issues? They will be more lasting on a global scale than anything Covid 19 throws out....

 

Have I ever told you the definition of insanity? It's reading the same things on the Jacobite thread over and over again and expecting a different result.
Have I ever told you the definition of insanity? It's reading the same things on the Jacobite thread over and over again and expecting a different result.
Have I ever told you the definition of insanity? It's reading the same things on the Jacobite thread over and over again and expecting a different result.
Have I ever told you the definition...

James

 

Sam, none of us know but you are assuming the worst case scenario and history tells us that the worst case rarely happens. Looking back it was predicted that 25% of the population would be HIV positive and everyone would lie people who had the disease. How many do you know. By now 200,000 of us should be dead from CJD according to the doom merchants but it didn’t happen. Stay positive and don’t worry yourself, the celebrations when this is all over will be something you will remember for the rest of your life

 

On this morning yesterday there was a female doctor who said strict social distancing will be a fact of life for a long time to come. That suggests at least 12 months probably a lot longer. Many times in history has the worst case scenario happened and unfortunately I fear this will be one of those times where the worst has happened. The biggest example being the flu pandemic at the end of the 1st World War with the deadly second peak ending up taking millions of lives. Worst case scenario is not rare but I wouldn't say it is common either. I admit at times like these I'm my own worst enemy but normal to me is unlimited travel and I fear there could be years of restrictions. My only advice is think about the second peak which I'm already thinking about. Most people my age are thinking they'll never get it but I'm worried I will get it or my dad will get it with the hospital having a choice between saving me or saving my dad with my dad's age meaning that they would chose to save me. I hope the NHS is never overwhelmed like that but the second wave could turn out worse than the first.

 

Most tourists will emanate from outside Scotland so they will not be welcome.We will be lucky to see one train a week on resumption if it ever happens. The golden age of preserved steam is over, cost is going to be a huge factor.

 

Sad but true. A lot of Preserved Railways will not survive no operations for more than a year and as a result will go out of business. I would say a large number of train operating companies and promoters will also sadly go out of business. The tourism industry will suffer for decades to come and may never recover.

 

There is no point in trying to reply to this as you never seem to accept anything the rest of us say. What happened to you 'not posting on covid-19 issues anymore?'

 

Sam, I will make a prediction. The Jacobite will be back, either this autumn or next Easter. Let’s both stop the discussion now and see who’s right.

 

And this is The Jacobite thread. There is a dedicated Coronavirus thread but you Sam' you said you wouldn't post there so I reckon you have a choice with Nat.Pres. post on the dedicated topic, or leave it alone.
I'm 81 years old and I'm expecting to live long enough to see this virus under control and yes, maybe book on The Jacobite.

 

Couldnt agree more John (we might be having drinks in the Grog at Christmas) and as I said in an earlier post its wait and see time.

 

How can the Jacobite run with social distancing? That’s all I’m asking.

 

You clearly get a kick out of fear spreading. Reiterating the same nonsense is getting boring and annoying. The vast majority on Nat Pres are optimistic in seeing the very likely return to normal very quickly in the heritage sector.
If you feel the need to fear spread, other social media outlets offer a far wider scope to entertain the masses.

 

I’m questioning whether some of you are underestimating the devastating consequences of this evil virus. Normality is almost certainly not achievable within the next 12 months but some of you seem to think it is. A return for the Jacobite in the autumn is totally unrealistic and next year is probably equally unrealistic too.

 

In your opinion - as with most comments (not just yours) on the virus.

If the current situation is continuing to cause you stress and anxiety (and I don’t for one moment doubt that it is), you really should distance yourself, by staying away from forums such as these, as you have said you would previously.

By posting ever more extreme (and in the main, unsupported) views, you will merely attract equally extreme contradictions, which will do you no favours, as you are beginning to find again.

Leave matters such as The Jacobite’s re-start to others.

JS

 

If anyone thinks that there will be a quick return to normal in the heritage sector, then I fear that they are sadly deluded. The vast majority of heritage railways are actively planning on the basis that there will be no return to normal this year. They realise that even if they are allowed to restart, social distancing requirements will vastly reduce their potential fare and secondary spend income which might mean that running trains is not financially viable, unless perhaps the coach sets are are made up of exclusively compartment stock and all compartments are pre-booked. There will be little or no chance of holding galas or special events which would attract large numbers of people and generate cash. The heritage movement knows it is in a fight for survival, hence the many 'Save our Railway' appeals.

Steam-hauled services on the national network will also struggle with financial viability under social distancing requirements, that is, unless potential passengers are prepared to pay at least double the fare that they do now.

Andy

 

And that I think many of us can appreciate and indeed agree with. It is the prophecies of doom, presuming a worst case scenario and extrapolating from it, that I struggle with.


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