Recommissioning after Coronavirus

I agree with what you've said. I just can't understand how the circumstances have to change before the "all clear" is sounded

 

The R number needs to fall to near zero, and stay there. Which is why relaxation of lockdown will be slow and steady, not a rapid “all clear”.


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The trouble, is Human nature being what it is, there will be a percentage who will not abide with any slow and steady relaxation, they will act as if it is all clear, and ignore well meaning advise, and that will lead others saying, in effect, they are not bothering, why should I

 

This is what happens when there is a relaxation. The greatest danger is complacency.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-52577140

 

I thought builders merchants had reopened, certainly Travis Perkins and Jewson trucks have been around in Swanage this week. Other building trucks such as ready mix concrete have been around for a couple of weeks.

 

Indeed. But if only some break the reduced limits, the impact may still be minor when considered as a population. I don’t know how to set the thresholds, but do believe such thresholds need to be set.


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Not sure this is irresponsible behaviour though. The tips were opened and people have rubbish to take. Birmingham being a city of 1 million + having upto 300 people queueing (150 per tip) to take rubbish is not surprising and everyone of them may have had an urgent need to responsibly (not fly tip) dispose of things.

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Quite. Demand has been suppressed for several weeks, and people will be wanting shot of stuff they’d ordinarily have got rid of ages ago.

The challenge for government will be coping with similar pent up demand as other measures are relaxed.


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Is it more to do with lack of planning , rather than just say, " we are opening up" and in that process sparking a free for all frenzy, it would have made more sence to have had some kind of pass issued by the council, that allowed only cars from one post code area on one day, and restricted it by numbers issued per day, that way, people can still dump their waste, but only on a set day, and only in set numbers, as the demand decreases, so the passes issued can be increased . it could be done on line so avoiding the need go face to face, to an office to get a pass

 

What problem are you trying to solve? There’s pent up demand, and allowing people to visit distances tips was managed by queuing. Your alternative requires systems to be set up, managed and enforced, increasing the risk to those doing the enforcement.

I also ask how does that work for those who have to work (not just “key workers”) if the chosen slots don’t fit with their employment?


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My local tip - some six miles away - apparently will re-open next week. But I can assure you it will be a week or so later when I even think about going there.
The reasons my local authority closed the tips in the first instance was due to the inability of those attending - and more importantly their staff - to maintain the safe social distancing.

 

That's your choice and a sensible one from your perspective. Others will have a different view and needs. Sadly some will always behave poorly, all we can do is try to behave well ourselves, politely call others out on it, and through the peer pressure effect reduce the number who are inconsiderate. I may be an outlier here, but running all society on the basis of what the lowest common denominator will do is sensible for a while, but not for ever. But that is only my opinion.


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https://www.dudley.gov.uk/news/tip-reopens-on-monday/
The announcement from my council regarding our local tip. Salient points:

• Only open to residents from the borough
• Pre-booked slot required
• Households will be limited to one visit per week (subject to availability)
• Anyone turning up without a prior appointment will be turned away without exception

So a council can set up and manage a system and at least plan to enforce it.

 

It's occured to me that this is a rationing problem and what is being rationed is space.
There are three ways of rationing a resource, queue, price or rationing. It seems the last one is recursive but allocation is another way to decribe it.
Schools for example will ration space by allocation, that is limiting the numbers in school on any day, roughly a third.
The tips in the article are rationing space by rationing, ie numbers present in the facillty and the queue to get in. Shops use this method. The combination of queue and allocation is likely to be the most common as it seems intuitive and fair.
As lock down eases we may see the price method used.
Individual actors can make choices based on their preferences and the rationing systems in use. I hate queueing and will use my time to avoid it.
The choice for railways is what system of rationing to use for passengers.
Only letting enough people on the train on the day, that's a queue and allocation.
Pre booked seats, that's allocation.
High prices on the premium dining trains, price and allocation.
Space in cafes, shops and museums, queue and allocation.
I'm sure there are cleverer people than me trying to solve these problems.
Whether the railways can cope with this and stay solvent is another question.

 

So two different councils have taken two different approaches.

 

As shown yesterday evening when the Swanage inshore lifeboat (and I believe also a helicopter) had to be called to rescue people from Slough who were cut off by the tide at Old Harry Rocks. Whilst pleased to hear they were handed over to the Police any fine will be insignificant and of course the lifeboat crew run the risk of infection they could spread to other residents.
A true case of lowest common denominator at work.

 

Hi, can I ask what you're basing this on? (I'm not trying to give you a hard time, I really would like to hear more.) I ask in part because the impression I'm getting is very significantly different.

BTW, do you happen to know of any large studies in the UK, looking for the presence of COVID antibodies in the population at large? I ask because one done in California (only semi-random, alas - people had to volunteer for it) surprised everyone, they were much more widespread than had been expected; there had apparently been very widespread, very mild cases where people didn't even realize they had it. That has a number of very important implications, obviously.

Noel

 

If you order from Travis round here, delivery is about 3 weeks. Wickes are allegedly doing click and collect, but the plywood I ordered at 1pm on Wednesday was ready to collect at 4pm today. Not Ideal.
At the moment my workshop is filled up with about £12k worth of materials for a house extension. It was all delivered to the site, but I've had to move it all for security. The customer has no kitchen, or downstairs toilet(it was demolished) and an excavated hole in their back garden and the lawn covered with stacked rebar and mesh. Foundations can't be poured until a guy from the council comes to inspect, but he can't do that because of corona. They have 3 kids under 9, no kitchen, no garden, can't get to the climbing frame or swing or trampoline. Both parents working from home, but two of the children also need to use the computer for schoolwork. Can't send kids off to grannie because of corona. Can't go to a hotel, can't go to macdonalds. Or the park, or out for a picnic.
The groundworkers have gone off to another big job, so when the buildings inspector does sign off, we have no idea how long it will take to actually get the concrete down.
I could get ahead and start fabricating the new kitchen, but I can't afford to pay out for more materials (another £6k, rock maple)- I have my own family to feed and no idea when any money is going to come in. Even if I could , there's no way I can work in the shop because its full of framing timber, celotex and bifold doors.
I can't ask them to pay for the materials, because a)the stuff is not on site. b) the contract is payment on completion of the envelope, c)the mortgage they have won't pay up until the council guy signs off the foundations d)It might tip her over the edge.
In the meantime, I can't get materials for the work I can do. Every day, perfect weather for building passes unused

 

2 items in shipping news pointed this up. USS Theodore Roosevelt had a major outbreak of COVID-19. When the Captain asked what the US Navy was going to do about it, he was dismissed his ship. The subsequent testing found that 60% of the positives were asymptomatic. The French Carrier Charles de Gaulle had a similar ratio. These crews are nothing like our demographic, of course, being almost all in the 20-40 year old range, but it makes you wonder what is really happening all around us.
Pat

 

For once I agree with Tony Blair who weeks ago now suggested that mass testing was essential to unlocking and expressed the concern that the longer lockdown went on the harder it becomes to open up and the greater the economic damage (not rocket science I know). So many of those least able to afford this double jeopardy tragedy are the hardest hit (again). We need to have a clear exit plan and this time the government need to not be incompetent about running it.

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