Any Questions?

Exactly so Mr K and that makes all the difference in the world.

With regard to Fred's response, I have to say Fred, that with the exception of a couple of the Southern route suggestions we have looked at every one of the routes which you suggest. They are all feasible but it goes back to what I said earlier so let's reiterate

Overnight move to London
1class 47, 2 x 57xx tanks, 8 coaches and the GUV, 3 drivers 2 firemen, 1 guard, none of whom would then be available for the next day's operations. Say 250 gallons of diesel fuel at £4 per gall, 6 tons coal at £200 per ton, WCR costs NR planning costs, track access, crew subsistence and lodgings, insurance etc, budget a total of say £13k

One day's operation in London
2 x 57xx say 8 tons coal 2 drivers, 2 firemen, 1 guard plus NR costs and charges and WCR charges. Costs basically as above say 12 k per day

You then have to find 12 on train staff and train manager plus chef and six catering staff, ship supplies down to London for second days operation, pay the catering staff, provide at least two nights hotel accomodation for 20 people plus the same for say 6 support crew and 5 train crew for three nights. That is around 73 single hotel nights and you do not get much change out of something in excess of £100 pppn around London. With travel, transport and subsistence and feeding staff during the day that is not going to leave much change out of another £10k

After that you have to get home so add another £13k as outward positioning move. Add all this lot together and 2 days ops has cost you£60k.

So if we then look at revenue with 8 coaches and the GUV, you are going to max at 114 dining and 192 standard seats. let us set the fares at a reasonable £125 Dining and £60 standard, which nets a figure of £25770 so revenue for 2 days is going to be £51540 plus maybe a bit more revenue off sales, raffle and buffet.

Whatever, the bottom line is that we would have put around 5 to 600 miles on 2 engines and 9 coaches plus another 250 miles on the 47 and it has lost us around £7k for the privilege of doing it. Add to that the fact that it has taken 2 managers and at least 5 other staff out of the TLW day job for 2 to 3 days and you come up with a lost opportunity cost to TLW of around £5.5k so all told this little jolly which, trust me, will leave everyone knackered will have lost the company around £13k in real terms, and have realised no return for the loco's and rolling stock. In reality you would have to charge fares in the region of £200 dining and £100 standard to get anything like the start of a resonable return for the effort. Were it another tour company they would additionally have to hire the loco's and rolling stock in at a cost of maybe around £12 to 14K so hopefully you will be getting a realisation of why no one else has tried it either. You don't have to do much advanced mental arithmetic to extrapolate these figures to understand why other tour companies have to run 13 coach trains over much longer distances in order to justify much higher fares in order to balance the equation and maybe make a profit if they fill the train; and incidentally end up causing all sorts of wear and tear to the loco's which have to lug all this lot around. We have been coming up with the same answers on this sort of proposal for over ten years, only the costs change- they go up!

So hopefully Fred, you will now understand why it doesn't work, why we do not want to do it, and will go back to just enjoying watching or travelling on the trains that we do manage to operate. At the end of the day, you may all be a little surprised to learn that running Panniers on the main line is actually bloody hard work - it is far easier to do twice the mileage with a Castle, and love them as we do 4 days on the trot is frankly something we would not wish to contemplate probably because we would all be totally knackered, sorry but it is just not our idea of a perfect weekend getaway.

Best Regards
Bob

 

Thank you for your cost breakdown BUT whilst you were talking of the "normal" dining set I was looking more to a simple rake of 6 Open standards [seating circa 70 therefore 420 seats] plus a buffet or similar plus support coach plus water coach to cater for the more "enthusiast" market. On this arithmetic the near £26,000:00 income you estimate will be garnered from a fare of £62:00 whilst the income from the buffet will be additional to - not part of - the revenue stream.

I note your cost of £13k for the transit move but I had posited that this could be run as an overnight passenger service with stages analogous to the water stops, thus making a virtue out of necessity; Tyseley - Leamington; Leamington - Banbury; Banbury - Oxford; Oxford - Didcot; Didcot - Reading; Reading - Southall. Assuming the patronage of 420 seats is filled then that transit cost would be covered by a fare of £31:00 per seat; if that seat price is staged at a price of £10:00 per stage or £50:00 for all 6 stages,then the income could be greater upto a maximum of 420 x 6 stages x £10:00 per stage = £25,200.

I was also looking that the branch line workings would be non-dining but geared to the basic enthusiast market where lesser resources would be required thus reducing costs without losing the attraction of the basic concept - Paired Panniers on GWR suburban lines. I had not considered the concept in terms of separate branch lines but - depending on marketing considerations - there is the thought that charging for each branch line rather than each days operation might increase revenue further but that is a commercial decision that the Tyseley Team are better qualified to assess.

That said I understand that (a) each tour demands a lot of organisation and (b) much work is undertaken by volunteers who each have their own commitments to meet thus accept your plea that - love them as you do - the work required does not justify the return.

However I thank you for your time and explanation which helps me - and hopefully other armchair critics - to understand the economics of your operation and better appreciate the Tyseley achievements with so few resources. In return can I ask that you allow some us to retain our dreams and aspirations in the hope that some may possibly turn into reality ?

After all who ever expected to see a GWR Castle cross the Forth Bridge ??

 

Fred

Great idea but we only have 4 TSO's so would have to hire 2 more adding to the costs. capacity of a TSO is 64 so you have overstated train capacity by 36 seats which reduces your projected revenue figures by just under £4.5k for the weekend. It is always a possibility to consider overnight passengers but we would consider it highly unlikely that it would fill as you project and quite simply is far to risky to contemplate. Do not forget that on top of breaking even you are looking for around £15k a day surplus as a contribution to the rolling stock.

Put simply it doesn't work for us, so we will do a deal with you. We will go away and allow you to retain your dreams in return for which you will cease trying to talk us into doing something that we currently have no wish or intention of doing.

Best Regards
Bob

PS Any chance of a copy of the Forth bridge photo for our archives please?

 

I was one voice urging an "out and about" for the Panniers, but after reading Mr Meanley's facts and figures I know understand more about the difficulties involved. I was I admit, surprised at the costs involved.
Many thanks to Mr Meanley for taking the time to explain.

 

Thanks for the detailed explanation, and it was more detailed than than we deserve to know so I'm sure we all appreciate it.
Behind all the pleasantries the message is clear enough, if you don't want to do it, you don't want to do it, fair enough we have to respect that.

There is a gap in understanding London tourism and leisure by our hobby and it is a niche which only the Orient express so far has filled at some point someone will grasp it and take it. Unfortunately that bridge is a tall one.

However, and shared by many in this hobby, is a gap in understanding by some, that posters in their armchair in this hobby, actually are "hands on" and have knowledge of an industry external to this hobby. Respect and Reward is bridge, which is only achieved when both bridges arches are crossed then we can cross it to reap the benefits. It is easy however to not build a bridge, than to build one and that is the reason why those who do, get rewarded.

I bow to your conviction that Panniers are a crazy no starting idea and the costs will never stack up, and as you stated "we have no wish or intention of doing" and won't suggest it again, dreams don't die, they just adapt until they become reality, at some point, in some form I am sure something unusual will happen on Londons branchlines.

Finally I will wrap up with the reference to the thread title, and whom created it..
If no more questions are welcome, should we now close it ?

 

Lots of at first glance sensible looking suggestions made above for events and also perfectly reasonable responses as to why a Midlands based operator can't do them. Perhaps the concepts suggested might inspire other operators to think of ways in which they can make both the logistics and finances practical. That is the bottom line though, someone has to crew it and income has to cover total costs either through fares or an alternative form of subsidising income stream to make up the on-train fares shortfall.

 

It has been mentioned before that the Hereford to Worcester route is out of gauge for Castles and Halls, but what about Panniers which I though were more gauge friendly ?

 

Would be alright on gauge I imagine, might be water on that itinary that's the issue, assuming you bypass Shrub Hill at Worcester, is there anywhere to water after Droitwich Goods loop ?, might be pushing it for range from there to Hereford, you can take the GUV, but still have to stop and connect it up.

 

There's a loop at Malvern Wellls but I'm unsure if it would be long enough to accomodate a decent length train or have decent road access without having to lay hoses over the Up main. Alteratively water could be taken at a station, Malvern Link, Great Malvern or Ledbury if access and pathing could allow.

 

Thinking about possible destinations for a day trip from Tyseley with 5043 + REG and Southport came to mind. There seems to be a triangle outside the station, though I've no idea if a train/loco could be turned there without an assisting diesel for the shunt move.

If it was a practicable and sufficiently attractive destination, perhaps there would there be a possibility of routing the tour across the Pennines on either the outward or return journey for some added interest.

Nick M.

 

Gauging at Meols Cop would rule that one out. Very tight past the platform. Also whilst the triangle is physically in, I seem to remember it's no longer signalled (bben a while since I've been into Sandhills!) Plus to enter it from Wigan you can only use Platform 3, but as the point is not at the end of the platform you could only get 1x loco and 6x coaches IIRC.

 

The problem at Southport isn't the point per se but the signal which is spaced for a 6-coach EMU trainset; that's why when loco-hauled services operated, the pairing of Class 31s meant loads were restricted to 4 coaches to allow access to the triangle. If steam came to Southport it would need a locomotive on the rear to draw the coaches clear of Platform 6 to allow the loco + support [+ Reg ?] to shunt their way round the triangle within the 6-coach length limit; possibly a WCRC Class 37 attached at Wigan ?

In response to the query of a tour via Worcester and Malvern to Hereford, experience suggests that a water-stop will be required every 20 miles or so; is there sufficient loops or pathing time to allow for this on the Worcester - Hereford line ?

 

Depends on the time of day when the train is run. The section from Worcester - Malvern Wells is quite heavily used but onwards to Ledbury probably only sees 2-4 trains per hour at most albeit that from Malvern Wells to Shelwick Junction is all single line with only a loop at Ledbury to allow trains to pass. It might be a bit tight even there.

 

But you can't get it round the triangle to turn, and I'm unsure if the Parcels Loop is still fit for purpose so where do you put 11 coaches? The trips that ran last year simply arrive and depart from Platform 6, with no need to be turned / serviced.

 

Would a Castle fit to Swanage assuming they got the Old Oak turntable fitted in future ?.

For a shorter day out with a longer break (give your daytrippers time to do what they want), how about taking Rood Ashton to Peak Rail ?.

 

How do you know that Ben??Its 1015 thats selling the seats.. Im sure primarily diesel enthuisiasts who will be on board because its 1015 would prefer the Rat to a steam.. The only reason not to use the the 25 I can think of is the load it will have to take up Goodrington Bank.