How long has the Fairbourne got?

Would that mean we'd end up with another sea wall at some point...

 

I'll say at the outset that I'm not a civil engineer but on reflection I'm not sure this makes sense at Fairbourne.

Sure the village itself could be sacrificed if money outweighs sentiment over homes etc.

However the issue here with rising sea levels and winter storms is more than just the seafront barrier. Behind that sea wall is a huge area of former salt marsh which extends beyond the old Barmouth Junction station area up as far as Arthog stream. Its fairly common for a lot of that to flood when the tides etc are right as it stands. If the spit which forms the entrance to Barmouth Harbour is allowed progressively to degrade then the tidal surge which is currently slowed by the sand bar at the mouth will come into the estuary much faster and more dangerously, sweep round behind the railway and thereby come at the track formation from both sides.

Secondly there is already an existing sea barrier at the beach which covers the shortest route from Friog to near Barmouth. The track line meanders a long way round to the current Morfa Mawddach station and the start of the bridge. Is it really going to be cheaper to build a whole new barrier round that distance (bearing in mind the foundations will be in a swamp) than to beef up the existing sea wall? How are they going to protect the timber sections of Barmouth Bridge which currently lie behind the protection of Fairbourne spit and wall.

The only way this makes sense is from the perspective of Gwynedd council if they can shift the cost of the sea wall from themselves to Network Rail but if NR end up concluding that the exposed section of track here isn't economic to maintain for the same reasons as its not economic to keep Fairbourne alive, then the costs from that in terms of infrastructure required in the county would dwarf the cost of one sea wall.

 

Perhaps of interest: Fairbourne Flood Risk Management Scheme Non-Technical Summary
http://tinyurl.com/pfqkdqf

 

The Fairbourne situation is complex but in principle the Gwynedd Council Fairbourne Moving Forward project has stated that Fairbourne (village) will be defended for the next 40 years from 2014. Fairbourne is defined in the Shoreline Management Plan 2 (SMP2) as two distinct areas. First is Ro Wen Spit, which is defined as in "Managed Realignment" now, that is, it will not be defended as sea levels rise. The other is the Ro Wen coast which is "Hold the Line" until 2055. After this point, if sea levels rise as predicted in the SMP2, this will be reclassified also as "Managed Realignment". After this point Fairbourne would be at risk.

The beach shingle is progressively moving Northwards, towards the Spit.

Monitoring is in place with the beach and shingle measured annually using a drone, sea levels are recorded in Barmouth and Ground water is monitored at 15 minute intervals from bore holes across the village. Over time this monitoring will confirm or otherwise the predictions being used in the SMP2

 

The environmental equivalent of advocating homeopathy…

Simon

 

It singularly isn't disputed by 'all manner of scientists' – it is disputed by a tiny percentage of scientists that aren't a significant distance from being a rounding error.

Simon

 

May be a new business opportunity… I might go and register www.we-insure-any-floodplain.co.uk just in case.

Simon

 

Returning to the actual railway in question, what plans for 2016? Any chance of Beddgelert returning...???

 

Ho-ho!

 

Erm, anyone got anything to share about the actual railway?

 

Nah. It's probably imaginary anyhow.

 

Beddgelert is unlikely to run for a fair whilst unless somebody has a large cheque as I believe it need firebox and or boiler work. Yeo. Sherpa and Russell and more than enough for their daily running requirements and from memory they have the major advantage over Beddgelert in that they have outside motion. When you run by the sea in a sandy environment I think they see it as major advantage to have the motion easily accessible, especially when you consider the size of the locos as there is not a lot of room underneath.

It is a shame that it will therefore sit in the museum for the foreseeable future as in my view it is a fine looking machine and if ever there was a loco I would happily put my hand in my pocket to support a new build off it would be Beddgelert

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-who-could-be-britains-first-climate-refugees

 

Actually, I was driving at Fairbourne last week and asked about Beddgelert. The boiler has been inspected recently and passed fit for another ten years, but the chassis is very tired and needs a lot of work - so, still expensive but hopefully work will be able to start within the next few years, but there's not a lot in the appeal fund yet to allow it - so please do donate. A lot heaper than building a new full size one!

As regards the abandonment of the village, my understanding is that a big part of the problem is the gradual rising of groundwater levels inside the sea defences. With the village basically at sea level it is a problem that cannot be dealt with by improved drainage! As has been said earlier, we've around 35 years left to plan what to do should the abandonment go ahead.

Some beautiful weather during my visit last week and the trains were full. It is the annual gala this weekend, with "Katie" returning for the first time (in steam) since 1926, I think it is!

 

Gwynedd Council now saying it will start decommissioning the village earlier than previously suggested and begin to move residents out, the Cambrian coast line could presumably be severed in due course.

 

Rears its head again. If one ignores the headline and reads the story, actually possibly a bit more positive than previously. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/doomed-seaside-village-become-first-31705125

 

I think they discovered that the model used to predict sea level rises in the area was massively pessimistic. As a result it looks like the council will progressively climb down from the original plan to decommission the village and stop maintaining the sea defences. I suspect that part of the slow climb down is face saving, and most is about trying to achieve some greater level of support from the Senedd and central government. In any case the latest is that the sea defences will be maintained into the 2050s

 

Sea level rise will continue for many years, however fast or slowly CO2 emissions fall. Fairbourne may be the first to be submerged but it won't be the last. That is unless Wales takes from lessons from the Netherlands. Meanwhile the home owners should not be kept waiting for sort of compensation or guarantees.

 

Quite possibly, but the extent and speed of change will be important and it isn’t yet clear what that will be. It is also clear that whilst the evidence for human induced climate change is beyond sensible dispute, predictions about precise local changes are far less certain. I’m very sympathetic to the plight of local property owners, but I am not sure how the council can provide either compensation or guarantee right now.