Recommissioning after Coronavirus

The modelling I've seen only covered the difference between air conditioning and an open window; air conditioning spread droplets whereas drafts disrupted the flow of them. Gut feeling suggests somewhere between no effect and disruption.

 

If tickets are sold "per compartment", I assume that will be at family ticket rates. For solo customers or even for couples, that option is both expensive and wasteful of carriage space.

Compartments do seem to be the best option for family groups, who probably form the majority of customers particularly at weekends. But I hope that railways will feel able to add one or two open carriages to train-sets, to better cater for passengers who are travelling singly or in pairs ( where the pair may be either an adult couple or an adult plus child).

Today's announcement of a relaxation of the 2m rule in England may allow an increase in open carriage occupation density, possibly up to 50% with just alternate seats being left empty - but probably subject to compulsory face masks.

 

About 30 mins in on BBC1 Your money or your life had a look at travelling on mainline trains. Should be on iplayer later.
Issues were wearing facemasks, keeping in prebooked seats (not going through train when moving) being considerate to other passengers and the difficulty of toilet use.

The current news headlines are about the possibility of a 2nd wave which will put a lot of older people off travelling or volunteering.

 

Looking at a facebook post from Dartmouth and the Bluebell website, facemasks are becoming the norm on heritage railways, even on dine-exs!

 

No one seems to have mentioned procedure for toilet facilities for visitors.

 

From what I can gather, on the GWSR on-train toilets are not to be used, and station toilets will be one in one out. Quite how all of that will work in practice remains to be seen, especially the non-stop trip from Cheltenham to Broadway with no toilets onboard...

 

Why? Does your old procedure not work?

(Go in, try to remain at least two metres away from anyone else; thoroughly wash hands before leaving - works for me).

Tom

 

The Bluebell is planning to run Sheffield Park - Kingscote (Non stop). Although East Grinstead is only another two miles, the feeling is that the narrow, single platform there makes it more difficult to maintain social distancing while the loco runs round, assuming some passengers will want to get off and stretch legs. Whereas at Kingscote there is both more platform space and an adjacent grass area to spread out in. It’ll be like pre-2013 all over again...

Tom

 

According to the very latest Steam Railway (received today), they have asked the DfT about this and they have confirmed that heritage railways and mainline charters are classed as "public transport" for the purposes of the face mask legislation, so face masks are required by all passengers. So there is now a massive question mark about the feasibility of dining services.

 

Mandatory masks/face coverings and the potential for no onboard toilets is a total non starter for me and many more I would guess !

 

Are there any issues with terminating at Kingscote, now that it has ceased to be a terminus? I seem to recall there were various restrictions in place before the extension opened.

 

Not as far as I know - other services terminate there from time to time, notably demonstration goods and sometimes trains at galas. I think the restriction was primarily about it being a permanent terminus; hence the necessity of reaching East Grinstead.

Tom

 

Looking at the raw numbers in the UK from the ONS data, we have

Under age 65 ---- death rate 1 in 10,000
65 to 84 ----------- death rate 1 in 500
85 plus-------------- death rate 1 in 80

Aggregate all ages death rate to this point 0.075% of the total population.

From another source (survey data being analysed by Oxford/Manchester), we have a best estimate of the proportion of the population with antibodies --- this is 5.4% across the population living in their own homes (ie not care homes etc). At the moment, they do not have reliable separate infection rates by age group but they are looking at that now.

Hence Whitty's statement that this pandemic still has a long way to run.

 

Which if you take the current deaths as 50000, we have potentially 20x that figure by the end, ie 1 million

 

I'm not sure I understand; is that 0.075% of everyone, or 0.075% of all who have had COVID (as confirmed by antibody tests, as not all people who get it display symtoms)? I'm guessing from the wording that the former was meant, but if so, given "best estimate of the proportion of the population with antibodies --- this is 5.4% across the population living in their own homes", that could mean an eventual toll of around 1.4% - unless some significant share of the population are so resistant they never even develop antibodies. (Too bad they didn't do antibody tests on passengers on that cruise ship- although on looking it up, of those who were confirmed to have COVID, it had 14/712=1.9% deaths, more than I recall from a news story - although in retrospect it's not clear which number they were reporting, since the overall death rate was 14/2666 passengers, giving the 0.5% I remember seeing.)

Noel

 

Yes I meant 0.075% of everyone. Yes that is consistent with 1.4% or as @johnofwessex says one million number in the herd immunity no vaccine scenario. But numerous caveats: (a) maybe in that scenario 60-80% coverage will be enough to see off the virus (b) it would be better to model the general population and the extremely vulnerable separately (c) at the moment we do not have reliable age specific infection/antibody rates, (d) some of these drugs are going to save lives which would have been lost in the first wave.

From my reading, I would say that Ferguson's original estimate of half a million in the herd immunity no vaccine scenario could be low end and one million high end of the range.

So, two closing points. The first is that although the Govt has taken massive stick, rightly in my view, it is also true that failure to lock down would have been catastrophic. Second, the payoff from a successful vaccine, both in health and economy terms, will be enormous.

Mods-- apologies, I wanted to reply to Noel's original post but maybe this exchange is better in the other Coronavirus thread.

Peter

 

The government has finally published advice for people who work or volunteer in heritage locations.

link here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/heritage-locations

 

It is dissapointing given all the various bodies that have taken part in the above documents that the HRA was not one of them, not like heritage railways are such a small part of of the sector to not be worthy of a voice. Many seem confused at what they can and can not do or simply lack any out of the box thinking and scare themselves in to a corner and do nothing, quite possibly to the severe detriment of their business.

Is anyone aware of any guidance from the HRA?

Mike