P2 Locomotive Company and related matters

Amongst other things, it refers to an e-mail from June entitled "A1SLT Signs Armed Forces Covenant".

 

The first new boiler was due in 2020 and the second in 2021….

 

Covid.

 

Bless you! The Trust did tell us it was so much worse in Germany. (Unfortunately that didn’t pass my fact checking ……. )

 

Well yes, but the boiler is "imminent" was the news in 2024.

Talking of that newsletter, what was the cause of the Cartazzi truck being out of alignment, and what was the cure?

 

Whilst it is understandable that there may be some frustration with progress, I still maintain that society’s expectations on delivery of large projects, and the reality of delivering large projects, (particularly large engineering projects), remain in two different universes.

Add in that much of this is volunteer led and not driven by strong commercial imperative (what business fails if there is no mainline P2 at hand in the next 12 months...?) and the arguments start to lose their substance.

Clearly its taking longer and evidently there are questions to be asked of the management (when is there not, in any business venture...?) but Id urge caution to those who are becoming more animated than is perhaps required.

Given the status of the machine today, and given how much money is yet to be raised, and that there is almost zero commercial imperative (In fact one could argue there is a serious imperative to delay completion owing to the much publicised A1 troubles) I would say a pre-2030 target completion would still be a huge success.

Its also easy to forget that inflation in engineering has had an enormous impact. Engineering is directly exposed to commodity and labour prices, and its always high value commodities and highly skilled labour.

Pure guess work, but it would in no way surprise me if overall costs have risen 20-40% in the last 3 years.

Couple that with what will be an interesting cash flow anyway, (how many covenanters have died or cut back giving) and the whole project just gets that much more challenging to deliver.

Don’t get me wrong, I cannot wait to see the P2 finished, and ideally running up to 61B but I can’t say I’m in any way surprised the project plan is moving to the right.

 

Thing is, we know that, you know that, the Trust (presumably) knows that, and yet fails to say so. There are two or three absolutely solid non-fault reasons they could give, and don't.

I get that "yeah, covid" doesn't give the image of control, but does saying boilers are imminent when they are not do any better?

 

Just in my lifetime and when I can enjoy it would do me.

 

Me too......the clock's ticking

 

I would say the P2 needs to be ready in the next 3 years, and to spend a year at least having shakedown tests, and getting trouble free milage under its belt, I would actually run it on preserved lines first, before letting it lose on the mainline, by that time Tornado, if it manages to stay in one piece , will be at about its 6,th year on the main line so there would be a year of overlap, where both the A1, and P2 potentially could be available, before Tornado bowls out as a mainline engine, but the P2 would by then, be available, also, then tornado could either go in for overhaul, or spend the remainder of its ticket touring preserved lines, raising funds, and acting as the trusts mobile publicity machine, then when its overhaul becomes due, that allows a 4 - 7 year time span to overhaul the engine.

 

I will put this ideology to them on Saturday.

 

Similar thoughts crossed my mind, too.

Its hard enough running one big mainline machine, and I dont doubt it would be unpopular to stagger entry in to service in this way, but from a cashflow and operating burden perspective, it makes total sense.

Cutting your cloth, so to speak.

To say it the other way around. "Yes, lets press this new design straight in to mainline service ASAP whilst we are still having trouble with our core locomotive and have shelled out a fortune on overhaul cost in the last 3 years, what could possibly go wrong...?" is a line of reasonanig that any accountant or engineer would have a hard time defending whilst remaining credible.

If this is the thinking, and the adopted plan, there is a duty to communicate that out to the skakeholder and investors.

If its not, then all we are chewing over here is how well the public relations are going.

 

Good luck, and measure the dust on the loco whilsr your there

 

Also check the cylinder block for cobwebs and rust in the bores.

Dave B

 

I will take a duster, and give it a wipe over on your behalf.....

 

Have a hard job, its away for final machining evidently....

 

It was their last Thrusday

 

Need a new keyboard....

 

I need an new everything

 

So does that mean it’s been away and is now back, or it never left in the first place ….. ?