S&C 150: 25/05/26

The judicial review gave an insight into the costs and benefits. It suggested a perfectly reasonable payback period for that expenditure, and one that other rolling stock owners were willing to accept.

 

WCR have been hiring out MK1s to heritage railways so they are still fit to run on NR

 

Doesn’t look as if a decision has been made on an afternoon train this year. This poster has now gone up at Fort William Station but note they are now advertising compartments again.

 

I have no idea personally what Kelly's reasons are for entering the diesel tour segment (although you obviously do) but everyone, even LSL, seems to be taking "nibbles" at what was the Pathfinder market segment.
I have no idea what if the drop off in passengers is due to the lack of Mk1's or not. How many non enthusiasts (the main paying group) know the difference? Pax number appeared to be in decline pre Covid when I was still stewarding regularly. But back "in the day" for example there were 5 WCME's and 5 DCE's most of which sold out or close to. It is now basically down to 3 of each that are not full from anecdotal evidence on here.
Also interesting pre Covid and still with Mk1's it was all about repeat itineraries being "boring" as they had been done too often and using "the same old locos" as the reason for falling loads. So was that wrong?
Maybe unless you are at the very top end of the market, mainly dining, it is just the fact that the market is declining. Only the likes of WCRC, LSL, Vintage RTC, & UKR may know that. Ridership at Heritage Lines (non gala) appears to be declining, why should the tour market be immune?
How many other than some on here for example care that Blue Peter's load last week was less than that for Duke of Gloucester? Most folks have a different focus in life.

 

Except that £50,000 per vehicle that WCRC were quoting was also bullshit, same as the 120 coaches to be fitted with CDL. Northern Belle are quoted as saying it would cost them £20,000 per vehicle. SRPS are quoted as saying it'll cost £100,000 to fit their fleet, so about £10,000 per vehicle. I believe Tyseley's costs were similar.

One of last year's Jacobite sets only had 5 passenger vehicle, the first and last were Mk1s locked out of public use. That's a hundred unused seats, every single day. About 180 days of operation. £69 per ticket. £1.2m in lost income per year. And that doesn't include the afternoon service either. Even at £20,000 per vehicle fitted, to fit 60 would cost, oh, £1.2m.

And that doesn't include anything other that the morning Jacobite. What about all the other charters that WCRC have run in the past for themselves but can't due to lack of locos? RTC only have a steam hauled programme this summer because SLL were given a load of cash to put 34028 on the mainline.

 

If I recall correctly (not been on a SRPS committee now for 3 years!), it was £100k component cost for 10 vehicles (incl. a kitchen car not needing locks) with labour on top if contracted out, which the Society has done for 6 vehicles. Probably closer to £250k for the 10 coach set if I were to take a guess. Doesn't change your argument though..

 

I think the basic argument that the estimated £ already lost in revenue on the last 2 seasons of the Jacobite would have covered the cost of fitting out the Jacobite carriage fleet - is essentially sound.

What is also true is the longer these carriages sit around in the Morecambe Bay air, the bigger the bill will be just to return them to a condition suitable for mainline traffic, never mind CDL. There are plenty of examples of what will happen in the Carnforth 'scrap line'. My prediction is some of these Mk1s have turned a wheel for the last time. I only hope some may benefit heritage lines somewhere else, but I doubt any will appear on the general market as a whole.

But then if economics had anything to do with it then you wouldn't have 4 / 5 mainline locomotives sat idle, wasting their boiler tickets. At what point does lost revenue & additional hire fees add up to covering the cost of air brake equipment?

I'm afraid Carnforth has become a shadow of its former self and economics have little to do with it.

 

Does anyone know a rough estimate of how much it'd be to air braked a loco?

 

But the only people who have paid for those coaches and locos is WCRC, not as a result of appeals or membership.
Funny how so many are concerned about a business they can not even buy shares in.

 

There are only three airbraked locos that run on the mainline, Tornado, FS and the Duchess. The others retain their original braking systems with the addition of an air pump and controls for working air braked trains. I don't know the cost but I would assume the cost would be about the same. a two pipe airbrake is more complicated than vacuum so there is a reclutance to convert locos by some engineers. I don't know where WCR stand on that issue.

 

A bit of strange comment, but to be expected whenever someone says something critical of 10A, which seemingly is the biggest elephant in the room these days that no one is allowed an opinion on.

As a railway enthusiast I make no apologies for being concerned about a business that owns a number of historic locomotives and vehicles.

If we were only allowed an opinion about businesses we were shareholders of, then we would all be pretty heavily restricted - I don't own many shares at all. Fortunately all of us are also customers of businesses - so do ultimately have some influence over their decision making as we are (alledgedly) their most important stakeholder.
This maybe reflective in recent reports about declining charter train loadings perhaps?

As it happens one of the locomotives that is at Carnforth was until recently owned by an organisation of which I am a member and Shareholder. At the time I thought it's sale was the best chance this historically incredibly significant locomotive had of steaming again. I am starting to wonder if that was the correct decision.

 

I don't know and I am not an engineer. But keep the maths simple. Let's call it £50k, and a mainline steam loco commands a hire fee of £5k. 10 missed outings covers it, especially if you are having to hire in a replacement. The likes of 46115, 35018 and Galatea were all out at least 10 times a year.

When Mayflower went to LSL, air braking equipment was fitted very rapidly. The investment in Eddystone has paid off pretty quickly too given all the work its picked up. Bahamas is having the equipment fitted now too...clearly there is a good business case.
But I don't think this is about economics.

 

They may be fit to run BUT are they fit to transport passengers ? Many people fail to appreciate the difference between stock moves and passenger transit.