S&C 150: 25/05/26

The judicial review gave an insight into the costs and benefits. It suggested a perfectly reasonable payback period for that expenditure, and one that other rolling stock owners were willing to accept.

 

WCR have been hiring out MK1s to heritage railways so they are still fit to run on NR

 

Doesn’t look as if a decision has been made on an afternoon train this year. This poster has now gone up at Fort William Station but note they are now advertising compartments again.

 

I have no idea personally what Kelly's reasons are for entering the diesel tour segment (although you obviously do) but everyone, even LSL, seems to be taking "nibbles" at what was the Pathfinder market segment.
I have no idea what if the drop off in passengers is due to the lack of Mk1's or not. How many non enthusiasts (the main paying group) know the difference? Pax number appeared to be in decline pre Covid when I was still stewarding regularly. But back "in the day" for example there were 5 WCME's and 5 DCE's most of which sold out or close to. It is now basically down to 3 of each that are not full from anecdotal evidence on here.
Also interesting pre Covid and still with Mk1's it was all about repeat itineraries being "boring" as they had been done too often and using "the same old locos" as the reason for falling loads. So was that wrong?
Maybe unless you are at the very top end of the market, mainly dining, it is just the fact that the market is declining. Only the likes of WCRC, LSL, Vintage RTC, & UKR may know that. Ridership at Heritage Lines (non gala) appears to be declining, why should the tour market be immune?
How many other than some on here for example care that Blue Peter's load last week was less than that for Duke of Gloucester? Most folks have a different focus in life.

 

Except that £50,000 per vehicle that WCRC were quoting was also bullshit, same as the 120 coaches to be fitted with CDL. Northern Belle are quoted as saying it would cost them £20,000 per vehicle. SRPS are quoted as saying it'll cost £100,000 to fit their fleet, so about £10,000 per vehicle. I believe Tyseley's costs were similar.

One of last year's Jacobite sets only had 5 passenger vehicle, the first and last were Mk1s locked out of public use. That's a hundred unused seats, every single day. About 180 days of operation. £69 per ticket. £1.2m in lost income per year. And that doesn't include the afternoon service either. Even at £20,000 per vehicle fitted, to fit 60 would cost, oh, £1.2m.

And that doesn't include anything other that the morning Jacobite. What about all the other charters that WCRC have run in the past for themselves but can't due to lack of locos? RTC only have a steam hauled programme this summer because SLL were given a load of cash to put 34028 on the mainline.

 

If I recall correctly (not been on a SRPS committee now for 3 years!), it was £100k component cost for 10 vehicles (incl. a kitchen car not needing locks) with labour on top if contracted out, which the Society has done for 6 vehicles. Probably closer to £250k for the 10 coach set if I were to take a guess. Doesn't change your argument though..

 

I think the basic argument that the estimated £ already lost in revenue on the last 2 seasons of the Jacobite would have covered the cost of fitting out the Jacobite carriage fleet - is essentially sound.

What is also true is the longer these carriages sit around in the Morecambe Bay air, the bigger the bill will be just to return them to a condition suitable for mainline traffic, never mind CDL. There are plenty of examples of what will happen in the Carnforth 'scrap line'. My prediction is some of these Mk1s have turned a wheel for the last time. I only hope some may benefit heritage lines somewhere else, but I doubt any will appear on the general market as a whole.

But then if economics had anything to do with it then you wouldn't have 4 / 5 mainline locomotives sat idle, wasting their boiler tickets. At what point does lost revenue & additional hire fees add up to covering the cost of air brake equipment?

I'm afraid Carnforth has become a shadow of its former self and economics have little to do with it.

 

Does anyone know a rough estimate of how much it'd be to air brake a loco?

 

But the only people who have paid for those coaches and locos is WCRC, not as a result of appeals or membership.
Funny how so many are concerned about a business they can not even buy shares in.

 

There are only three airbraked locos that run on the mainline, Tornado, FS and the Duchess. The others retain their original braking systems with the addition of an air pump and controls for working air braked trains. I don't know the cost but I would assume the cost would be about the same. a two pipe airbrake is more complicated than vacuum so there is a reclutance to convert locos by some engineers. I don't know where WCR stand on that issue.

 

A bit of strange comment, but to be expected whenever someone says something critical of 10A, which seemingly is the biggest elephant in the room these days that no one is allowed an opinion on.

As a railway enthusiast I make no apologies for being concerned about a business that owns a number of historic locomotives and vehicles.

If we were only allowed an opinion about businesses we were shareholders of, then we would all be pretty heavily restricted - I don't own many shares at all. Fortunately all of us are also customers of businesses - so do ultimately have some influence over their decision making as we are (alledgedly) their most important stakeholder.
This maybe reflective in recent reports about declining charter train loadings perhaps?

As it happens one of the locomotives that is at Carnforth was until recently owned by an organisation of which I am a member and Shareholder. At the time I thought it's sale was the best chance this historically incredibly significant locomotive had of steaming again. I am starting to wonder if that was the correct decision.

 

I don't know and I am not an engineer. But keep the maths simple. Let's call it £50k, and a mainline steam loco commands a hire fee of £5k. 10 missed outings covers it, especially if you are having to hire in a replacement. The likes of 46115, 35018 and Galatea were all out at least 10 times a year.

When Mayflower went to LSL, air braking equipment was fitted very rapidly. The investment in Eddystone has paid off pretty quickly too given all the work its picked up. Bahamas is having the equipment fitted now too...clearly there is a good business case.
But I don't think this is about economics.

 

They may be fit to run BUT are they fit to transport passengers ? Many people fail to appreciate the difference between stock moves and passenger transit.

 

I have never said I agree the WCRC position is the best to take. Personally I think that air pumps should have at least been fitted to the locos to allow them to haul the Mk2's.
My issue is people telling WCRC or any other commercial organisation how to run their business. This is what I call the "Concorde Argument" where a bunch of people not involved (and one individual with a beard looking to score points) argued how outrageous it was that one was not kept airworthy. Totally ignoring it was not their business decision but those of the two airlines (although by then one in reality) that operated them and the manufacturers who made the parts.
If WCRC have chosen to reduce their profits over CDL that is their choice.

 

This thread really does summarise why our hobby is one of the most political and divisive hobbies to be part of! People actively whinging that 58 years to the end of steam Tangmere is running on the mainline, I mean we’re lucky to have steam out there frankly. People slating a business and business owner who have really built up the operations of mainline steam for decades, and year in and out cover god knows how many miles to bring heritage traction to literally the whole country.

How on earth people fail to be happy with things such as with both this year and last years Great Britain tours WCR will/have brought steam to Penzance, Wick, Pembroke, Kent, the depths of Norfolk, etc, with steam finishing over 60 years before in many of those location.

Yes it’s not great if you stand lineside and look at the thing. But is it the worlds end?!

 

And the fact remains that literally no one beyond the Kremlin in north Lancashire and a farmhouse in North Yorkshire knows the precise ins and outs of why WCRC are choosing to make these business decisions, yes certain things have been said to the media but as a business that has quite a history of limited and ambiguous media engagement I'm not sure why these statements are now being interpreted as gospel and not just the same old same old.

As I've said time and time again the hierarchy at 10A ain't getting any younger and unless we know (any why should we) what the longer term plan/succession plan is there then spaffing 100 or 100'sK's on stock that may only have a limited earning potential for your business may not make sense, similarly with the loco fleet. Similarly talk of 'lost profit' (and we have no idea until the latests missive lands in CH) rather depends on what the long term aspiration of the business is, if its spot hire and contracts with NR then Mk1's have literally no place in it, with the Mk2's one would assume that they will be fully aware of what impacts this has had on profits from both their own revenues but also no doubt what RTC are telling them, and they will no doubt be basing decisions on this.

Whatever one thinks of Mr Smith (and I've never met the guy, have no interest in doing so and I suspect very few on here who have an incredibly intense feeling about him have likewise not met him) you don't build the businesses that he has without some manner of strategy and business acumen, and comparing LSL and WCR as businesses seems to be broadly comparing apples and ford cortinas, ultimately its his business, his money, his assets, his train set and his to do with whatever he likes with it.

And now the wait commences....

 

One view of the world is black and white--- private commercial businesses can do what they like within the law, no shareholders to consider in this case.

The other is shades of grey. A better example of that in my view was BAs decisions to withdraw significantly from the domestic and later the BA Connect operations. There were public interest aspects to that alongside commercial ones. In this case, WCR is the custodian of some assets of historic and cultural interest. If the bottom had fallen out of the charter market and it was simply not commercial to run any more, then fair dos, that would be sad but understandable. In this case, it seems as if the decisions are not entirely commercial and have impacts on their supply chain. I wonder what RTC and Rileys are really thinking about the decisions of the last three years at WCR. Perhaps one day we will find out. Meanwhile it's a free country and fair comment is not yet banned.