Lynton and Barnstaple - Operations and Development

Sadly I don’t recognise that prediction. Climate scientists (including the Met Office) have consistently and for many years predicted climate change in the UK would produce a trend towards (a) warmer wetter winters; and (b) hotter, drier summers. Overlayed on that would be normal variability of weather. So we could still expect some deluged, stormy, flood prone summers - and/or snowy winters, as in the past. The point is though that the probability of those sort of extremes, at those seasons, was declining; while the probability of extreme weather of any kind would tend to rise, due to more energy in the warmer atmosphere.

The only thing that seems to have changed recently is a growing realisation that the caution in scientists' predictions may be leading to the actual speed of change having been underestimated. Hence we are getting more weather records being broken, years earlier than expected, as with the sudden “flash drought” this summer.

All this adds to the uncertainty about the future of heritage railways. More extremes of weather will add to costs. Then there is the state of the economy - and unknown changes in what holidaymakers in a few years time will want and be able to afford. Some railways will possibly close. Smaller ones like the L and B with great scenery in a holiday area may end up in a good position and even be able to get cheap and suitable locomotives, etc from lines that close.

That is one scenario; but none of us can know what the future holds. It is sensible to make plans and debate options. But as with military plans, it is also important to stay flexible and not pursue plans blindly. Good commanders know that even an excellent plan may lose all validity once there is contact with “the enemy"- who may well do something completely unexpected.

 

Well, I guess we will never know for sure how the weather will react over time. The other day I was browsing YouTube and came across one about dinosaurs. According to the guy who was presenting it reckons that we have had these heat spells before; then came the meteor killer and wiped out 90% of all dinosaurs, and the burning of what plant life was still about caused a pollution bubble, which in effect was a thick cloud cover. This stopped the sun from reaching the Earth, and the world was plunged into a cooling period (no one for sure knows just how long it lasted) until plant life started all again.

This was compared to the Industrial Revolution, and as he said, since we have had various clear air controls in place, the weather has been getting hotter each year, as the level of pollution becomes smaller each year. How many of you remember the scare tactics when they started to say we were losing the ozone layer?

I have concluded that we will always need some air pollution, though not at past levels, but just enough to have a shield against any extreme temperatures. If you take a look at China were is still a lot of pollution, then they suffer from storms and heavy rainfall

 

A man on youtube said...
Possibly not that credible...

 

It's a subject which is not really for here as it hasn't much to do with the L&B except for any arguements of pollution and it calls for long posts too exploring so many complex systems.

In truth, when you compare the L&B against the massive global output from manufacturing and commercialisation, energy production, the resources being used by the big corporates, the materialistic way in which society lives now, and the more recent phenomena of building huge data centres to 'digitalise' everyone's life and create endless rubbish by AI, any pollution by the L&B is infinitely and incredibly small.

I attached a document which I have been compiling over the past few weeks to be posted elsewhere for anyone who is interested, and it is an exploration of what I think you saw in the YT video.

It's still being edited so may have spelling and grammar mistakes.

(Edit: I've been a member of one of the leading Weather and Climate forums in the UK for over 20 years, where there are topics on many aspects of Climate Change, Ice Cores, Pole Ice, weather teleconnections, El Nino/La Nina, storm tracking, stratospheric systems, oceanic systems, and endless scientific studies and papers as they are published, although I haven't been quite as active in recent years I do read them to keep up to date.)

 

Sorry I have missed bits of the thread, I didn't have time to go through over 800 pages! I can agree the L&B can avoid corridor, as I also mentioned the IoWSR that is a good model for catering (though they didn't choose No Mark 1s that much, they do not fit. With what they ruin I'm not sure how much effort it would be to alter the infrastructure to get them to, but they are similar to Sothern Railway Restriction 0 Tunbridge Wells Grove Junction to Battle Loading gauge). Also if they journey gets longer on the L&B they can advertise, train will be at station X for however many minutes for toilet stops and staff check the loos before departure. I do think the Woodland Wandered journey time can be a partial red herring as if I had issues that needed a toilet you'd book onto one of the trains that has a toilet. I do think diversity of options is good but if it has been discussed and discounted, fair enough.

With the train length discussion, two parts, a low heigh L&B platform is not the same as a modern mainline one, and ruining the atmosphere may be a little overstated (sorry I can't find the post to quote what was said exactly). Also if they are only needed at termini (though obviously not with non-corridor stock, back to Jamessquared point on everything being linked) as the railway extends it would not be hard to return them to normal ground. The other part was I though Lyn was made (and maybe the planned Manning Wardle Replicas were planned to be?) more powerful in a few ways (not just a more modern boiler at higher pressure). Was this not to allow longer trains or was it a, we don't know if required so do it like this to be sure? The original locos could take 4.5 coaches to Blackmoor solo and 5 beyond if I remember correctly, so a minor update would allow this (or just avoiding the 1 in 29 on the new route if it gets that far as I think that bit is part that will be bypassed to get around Wistlandpound Reservoir).

[tangent]I do think the statement of reduction in capacity by a third to half is overly pessimistic however, an open 3rd will loose one quarter for the corridor in the vehicle, then 2 more to get the central gangway on the ends (so 7 compartments goes from 7*4=56 which may not be achievable as people are larger to 5*6 + 2*5 = 40. The Observation Brake Composites (Numbers 1 & 2) could only loose two 3rd class seats and 1 first. Obviousy tables complicate this as doors and tables clash, but you don't need all seat to have tables and one compartment on the train would be lost to a toilet potentially. Also kitchens may not bee needed, at my railway all the food is done off the train and any last minute things like plating up is Roasts is done on Tables in the Brake Coach, so maybe a third is getting close. But this is off track if it isn't going to be done.

 

Just quickly picking up in this part, the internal dimension of the carriages is 66 and one sixteenth inches. Although originally the seats were marked up, "To seat four", very rarely do we see the seats sitting four today. We do have the centre open thirds which have a small single seat one side of the door into the open section and a very small double on the other side, but they are incredibly cramped and mostly only one person sits on the double. Thus the reduction of one third in modern three per carriage wide seat standards, and half going by original "To seat four" standards.

 

Fair enough, I was thinking bigger modern people probably didn't sit 4 across and was going to put something in, then forgot. But I was trying to be pessimistic with the loss number, however on the FfR though I do see 2 people sitting in the 2 seats on the coaches that have 2+1 seats that I believe are very comparable to L&BR coaches. Though they do seem to be a, if enough are in the party/train is full enough rather than by default.

 

Some of Ffestiniog's carriages are wider. When they obtained the L&B carriage 15 to create their Snapper Bar they moved the walls out to roughly where our running boards are which gives I think it's 6'8' maybe a bit more? So the larger internal dimension, let's say around 75" as the walls are about 3" thick, allows a 2+1+gangway, approx 40" double seat, 16" gangway, 19" single seat....something like that.

By the way, I noticed you are a new member, welcome