Lack Of Mainline Steam Loco's

This year has not been very good for the mainline activity, with a lack of steam locos through breakdown, Mainline cert expired or accidents.
Looking at the amount of cancellations to this years tours, I know it is like anything , but there does seem to be a shortage of mainline cert locos, which boiler have expired, and now needing overhaul.
Correct me if I am wrong, but would it be better if there was a pool of loco's with mainline certs which are on standby, but used on heritage lines too.

 

Whilst it is the case that there is a shortage of main line steam locomotives, this may be the start of a decline which cannot be reversed without lots of money being spent. The simple fact is that the costs of operating on the main line are rising rapidly as new regulations (e.g. ERTMS; TPMS; air-braking) are imposed whilst the cost of maintenance (e.g. the need to MAKE rather than BUY parts) is also rising. Add to that the cost of inspections (fitness to run) and the lack of volunteers to join the necessary support crews and the problem of main line line running begins to show.

The income gained from main line running needs to be set against that cost but it cannot be ignored that the income will NOT cover both the running costs and the 10-year overhaul costs hence the other factor that owners are finding that the 10-year boiler certificate lends itself to a 6 -7 year main line life then the easier 4-year heritage line working to help pay for the necessary 10-yearly overhauls.

A good case in point is 34027 which has been languishing on the SVR for nearly 10 years with little certainty of when it will return to operating status or even if it will return to the main line. The owners of 34092 which is nearing completion on the KWVR have demurred about returning the loco to the main line on grounds of cost and the owners of 71000 have also recently reached a cash shortfall that has been worsened by the main line failures that the loco has recently suffered.

The recent report on the problems with 4472 / 60103 have highlighted further factors relating to standard of footplate crewing and operating factors such as load and speed which at their heart hint at the growing difficulty of operating steam traction on the modern network; in simple terms it means that expenses are going to increase whilst the incomes are increasingly going to fall below the amount required to maintain the locomotive(s) in top condition.

That funding gap will need to be filled and it is increasingly the commercial firms with locomotives as part of their operation who will provide most of future main line locos. As David Smith so eloquently put it in 2000 - "main line running will survive only as long as owners such as me are mad enough to put our hands DEEP into our pockets" - and the need to go deeper increases with every new regulation. The late Peter Beet also made the point that once you have spent the money completing a 10-year overhaul there will be a need to fund another overhaul 10 years after - whether you stuff it as a museum display or operate it. The question is whether that cost is best covered by heritage line operation with minimum expense and low income or highest expense and higher income although experience tends to suggest that both options result in a funding gap at the end of 10 years. It appears that the chosen option depends on whether that funding gap can be financed - and that is also a further problem that some loco owning groups now have to come to terms with.

The shortage of main line locos is a sympton of a wider malaise called reality that cannot be overcome by the creation of a "standby" locomotive pool and whilst Ian Riley, Vintage Trains and WCRC are willing to fund steam operation and owners such as the A1 Trust and John Cameron have the the resources to continue their efforts, my personal view is that the increasing costs in terms of main line operating costs, overhaul financing and person availability will see a gradual reduction in main line activity with a restriction in the number of routes where locomotives will be seen.

Many of these points have been made in the recent Flying Scotsman report and it will be interesting to see how the operation of main line steam traction is aaffected by the factors identified. Suffice to say that the comments reported so far suggest that personal opinions vary so much that it will be difficult to gain sufficient agreement about the creation of a "standby" pool let alone organise one or even decide where to locate it.

 

A few points on Fred's post: No locomotive is subject to ERTMS so it's not a cost that has to be borne by any steam locomotive operators, installing TPWS, OTMR and GSMR, yes.. I don't think 34027 has been languishing, it's had a very extensive overhaul which is coming to its conclusion. Some overhauls take longer than others.

 

34027, like Neil mentions is coming to its conclusion.
The list of NEW parts for '27 is as long as my arm. This is the overhaul the loco has desperately needed since coming back into service from Barry.
Remember also one of the new parts made for the loco is the drivers side cylider which failed on a mainline trip. The air pump is being kept on the loco for incoming charters to the SVR and a slim chance of returning to the mainline. Mr Swallow has to earn his money back from the overhaul somehow. Whether that be through mainline work, steaming fees and hiring the loco to other railways.

I for one cannot wait for the SVRs 2014 season with potentially 2 Bulleids running around the coutryside. Just hope the coal situation improves.

IMO, in the next 10 years we will see a big decline in mainline locos and routes available to accomodate 60mph trains that have a potential to fail in section. I get the feeling there will be half a dozen routes that NR will allow regular steam (think Jacobite, Shakespeares, Scarboroughs).

 

Thanks for the information, as I am new to this, and understand the costs involved due to my former projects and experience,and know N.R rates are increasing, but with parts, from own experience, the pattern making is the expensive part, but the mould's could be used again to muliply parts for sale to other members.
But with the price of copper,steel ect rising, it may be a useful way to generate money,and have a source of ready spares for the next overhaul.

 

One point that Steam Railway Mag point out over a year ago. Is the amount of steam tour that have increased over the last ten years. This level of steam tour can't continue with the amount of steam locos we have for main line use. Maybe we have came to the tipping point and the number of tours needs to be reduced to accommodate the amount of main line loco we have available for main line work.

 

Whil acknowleding the point, the last few months do seem to have been exceptionally problematical, with many locos affected by unforeseen circumstance. 6023 and 34046 have both made much slower progress than expected. 70000 has had a prang, 71000 has bad problems with its valve gear, there was talk of slipped tyres and other problems with 46115, 60007 has hit a few unexpected problems, remedial work on 5029 has taken longer than expected. and there may be a few other mid-term overhauls that have taken longer than planned (I don't know how long the owners of 70013and 46233 expected the winter work on their engines to take, so these may not be over-runs from their point of view, even though both were advertised to be working by now on uksteam.info)

Apart from 71000, and possibly 46115, all these engines should be back on the main line by the end of the year, if not a lot sooner. There is also the possibility of two main line B1s and knowing how quickly Ian Riley can turn round a "Black Five", 45212 could be in action before too long. I can see why West Coast snapped up 35018. If it can be turned into a second Clan Line in terms of relaibility and performace, the sooner it returns to the main line the better. There's certainly a need for a few more main line certified engines. 35027 has also been mentioned as a possibility for 2014, and hopefully 7029 won't be too far off. Maybe I'm being too much of a "glass half full" type, but within a year I think there's a good chance that things will look a lot more hopeful.

 

I'm not sure there is anything but a temporary shortage. After all, aren't we going to have 6023, 45699 and 34046 all return to the mainline in the not too distant future?

I do wonder what passenger loadings are like on all the tours that take place - surely that is the biggest driver?

 

Apart from 35028 doing the VSOE's & the CE plus 5043's 11/05 trip, the only other steam loco working in the south is 34067.
A sad state of affairs.

 

There will certainly come a time when the number of tours will decline, but I believe that it will be the result of the demographic who regularly go on them disappearing, thus leaving the repeat itinerary tour at c.65mph as the only steam in town due to its family appeal. As a result, we may see a decline in the so-called 'one off' trip like the 'Welsh Borders' last weekend. As for advances in technology, a lot of developments have required NR to pay for the equipment for locomotives already mainline registered, and there will almost certainly be those 'mad' enough to purchase the equipment in future as their locomotives become available for mainline use. Pathing may be an issue, but more on the 'one-offs' like the above, as repeat itinerary tours tend only to occur on routes where there are plenty of slots available and within relatively easy reach of help should things go wrong (hence why you are more likely to have 'clean' steam on a repeat itinerary tour than on a 'one-off'). The fact that 34067 is the only loco in the south is a good state of affairs if you're a Bulleid fanatic!

 

Other than the locos that brmp has mentioned, you had others that I may have thought to be back on the mainline, like Blue Peter,4610045231 plus with it being mallards 75th, that it too may have been out again.

 

I'm looking forward in seeing 34046 on the main line. But how long will 34046 be able to run on the main line before the current Main line boiler ticket expires.

 

Here is what we have in traffic
4-6-2 5/9
out and about 34067, 35028, 60009, 60019(4464)
46233 emerges on Friday with a light engine move to Derby than to Scarborough on Saturday

4-6-0 8/13 ?
777, 4936, 4965, 5043, 44871, 45407, 61306
5029 repairs nearly completed

others 3/3
48151, 61994, 62005

16/25

This number is not perfect but I did the best I could to count the number of locomotives in repair/maintenance. Just by the above number that is a big gap

 

Anyone trying to arrange a steam hauled charter along the Cambrian lines may choose to take issue with that statement!

 

Whilst no steam locomotive is FITTED with ERTMS my understanding that once ERTMS is functionning only locomotives fitted with the equipment will be allowed on the fitted route; thus, by definition, (unfitted) locomotives will be subject to (bans from ) ERTMS (fitted routes) which means - in practice - a restriction on the routes where steam traction can operate. It's not the cost that will be lost but the income as routes are barred - I believe this point is proved by the lack of steam traction on the Cambrian route since ERTMS trials began despite steam haulage proving to be a successful initiative. Despite the best efforts of both WCRC and Ian Riley I believe there is no technical solution that allows fitment to steam locomotives hence this has become a route lost to steam haulage for the forseeable future.

 

On a steam charter, it appears the smallest part of the revenue shared out goes to the owners of the steam loco...
The charter promoter, Stock provider, TOC and Network Rail all take large slices of the pie.

Without the engine there is no show.
If the loco owners take their ball away... The market starts to dry out
Could this be a warning to those enjoying the profits of the industry earned off the backs of those who work for free and subsidize the star attraction ?

 

As there is only one line fitted with ERTMS there isn't an argument that large numbers of locomotives are unavailable for mainline work as per the original poster's comment.

 

Sadly, AFAIK, Blue Peter will be parked up for a long time as it requires a very large amount of funding for it's overhaul. A real pity, as it is a superb machine.

Cheers

Alan

 

9600, 7752, in ticket and usable

44932, 45305, 45231, 46115, 45699, 60007, 5029, 60163,
70000, 70013, - in ticket and soon to be usable

 

44932 (Repair), 45305 (at KWVR), 45231 (Overhaul), 46115 (Repair), 45699 (not ready), 60007 (never ready), 5029 (repair), 60163 (repair),
70000 (repair), 70013 (repair), - in ticket and soon to be usable
Add to that 34046 (not ready), 5690 (Overhaul), 6023 (not ready), 61306 (soon to be ready)

in short.. the mainline steam fleet (or there owners) are knackered.

The good times have been promised since 2010, but have failed to materialise, indeed since 2010 the only newly overhauled mainline returnees to have pulled a train have been 46233, 60009 , 60163 and 70000, and since 2008 that expands to 5043, 44932, 45305, 46115, 70013. (9 locos)

But in recent years 6024, 5690, 6201, 34016, 73096, 71000 have left and 4953, 850, 60007, 76079 left us premature - (10 locos)
Many promises have yet to materialise including 4079, 6023, 7029, 34046, 34092, 35027, 44767, 5699, 6100, 60103, 76084 - (11 locos)
Some locomotives haven't really had much work 777, 4953, 5029 and 60007 come to mind.

Ultimately the reason the mess exists though is that too few locomotives do too much work, the loss of 44932, 46115, 70000, 70013, 60163, which between them do at least 50% of the mainline work... if 34067 went down.. mainline steam would be doomed.

in my opinion mainline steam peaked in late 2008/9, went into a plateau in 2010/11/12, this could be the start of either the decline or a second rise... 2015 will reveal (7 years since 2008).