HOW MANY PRESERVED RAILWAYS WILL WEATHER THE FINANCIAL STORM?

Good evening everyone.

A realise this is a provocative title, however this country is in a deep financial mess and I have noticed that more and more Railways are letting staff go, selling off their assets and recording loss of revenue..

My questions are , who will survive, who will go to the wall and who have to drastically downsize whether they be big or small?

Kindest regards
Chris:

 

Loss of revenue? A lot of railways recorded good passenger figures last year.

 

Whilst figures might have been good, it all depends if a profit was made.

Those railways that have large debts will have to look long and hard at their expenditure and budgets

 

Not saying it will be easy, but as times get harder people are looking more and more to day trips and short local break's instead of trips abroad, which is why despite the general outlook I am optermistic with carefull planning most of, if not all heritage railways will manege to keep their head above the water, its the unforseen one off that will be the major challange, such as land slips, bridge replacements etc.

 

Just to to cheer us all up and banish the 'winter blues', how many railways haven't managed to 'weather the financial storm' in recent years??? I can't think of many or even any that have been for reasons other than politics, as recent stats seem to so a general increase in passengers numbers on the whole.

Will

 

Middleton had a very good Santa season, with takings some 28% up on budget. This, along with a 2011 season that was otherwise generally on budget on income and down on budget on expenditure has made it a fairly good year. As ever, though, there's plenty to spend the money on in 2012! Subject to successful boiler inspections, it is expected that we will have four steam locos available this year and, with 2012 being the 200th anniversary of the introduction of steam locos on the Railway and being appropriately celebrated, we are looking forward to a busy year.

Could always do with more help, though!

 

Whilst money supply will always be an important issue; financial support by itself is not the whole solution. Heritage railways that weather the current and future financial storm will, in my view and experience (such as it is) also have local and regional community support, a variety of "experiences" for visitors, good quality parking, refreshments and toilet facilities and friendly staff. Heritage railways that have been around for a decade or more and have had a chance to build up an "emotional portfolio" will already have some of these factors and/or facilities. There are a few notable exceptions, including the rapidly growing Epping and Ongar Railway, where rapid investment, coupled with local support, may well ensure a strong, resilient heritage line for the future.
Funding is essential but it isn't everything; the McNamara Fallacy springs to mind:
"The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is suicide." (Charles Handy, The Empty Raincoat)

 

I have often thought that a difficult economic event or chain of events will force some lines/centres/museums to fold, consolidate or merge.

I can see, for example some more established lines with a large portfolio of rolling stock starting to start large scale leasing of some items out to lines with a lesser collection solely to raise revenue and others that share a common interest perhaps merging interests (tactical or strategic) to enable them to continue.

For example how many lines have engineering facilities that duplicate facilities of a near neighbor or compatible line? Could one line focus on boiler repairs and another on fabrication and such?

Could the future be regional groups sharing facilities, stock, marketing, procurement etc?


My fear however is that a 'Disney' entertainment company may step into purchase a line in diffculty and start a process that will make us all wince.

 

Depends perhaps how bad you think the situation will get, but my guess is that all those that conserve and manage their cashflow carefully will survive. Profitability was never a great guide to company stability particularly in an industry such as ours which is so seasonal. A profit without cash in the bank is useless, and it is perfectly possible to record a loss and have plenty of readies. Most heritage railways have had to become world class cash managers just to survive, so they should weather the storm ok. Just pray no-one has a big embankment slip or similar problem if the financial situation gets really messy.

 

i think most volunteers thrive on adversity. Disasterous as landslips and the ilk appear at first glance, they would certainly bring out the "devaition" spirit in many workers, so I'd say virtually all lines would weather the storm provided they have a solid workforce.

 

Fear not, just look at the new S&D website as they have all the answeres there:blabla:. In fact apparently the money will come flooding in to rebuild railways, Not sure where from but they seem confidant the whole route will return LOL. Sorry but i can't take them seriously.

 

Arguably, people may cut back on foreign holidays and spend their holiday money in the UK, causing a boom for our heritage railways.

After all, back in 1990 or so few people took reopening of the Welsh Highland Rly seriously.

 

If last year is anything to go by ,I think that we as an industry will be ok , but we will have to work harder to get peoples hard earned cash .
At the KESR, we had a good year and i would expect this year to be on a par, it helps that we have a very good destination in Bodiam castle to attract people and in our bit of kent/ east sussex, not much else locally to take to much of our trade away .

Where there is a lot of competition i fear that some lesser railways could find things very hard, and that anyone planning to open a new railway, or build a new engine needs to think again its not the right time now for any new schemes as much as we may want to see it because i dont think that the financial situation is right for starting unless you have a tame millionaire to back you, or you get given a line at so low a cost that you cant say no and can play the long game in bringing it back into use , if you have already got a lot of funds availible

 

True, but don't forget that those 'good times' will end at some point in the future.

I'm sure that most heritage railways would like the WHR also benefit if the politicians in charge would readily hand out multi-million pound cheques.


Chris

 

The UK like the rest of Europe has yet to recover from the current financial crisis which abounds. When families have regained their large disposable incomes such as they can once more afford overseas holidays, etc, then the current surge in day trips to UK attractions is bound to suffer. Give it time, it will happen.

Chris

 

I reckon we might see one go to the wall this year; three more within four years unless the economy improves dramatically. Over the next decade all bets are probably off, but my finger in the air says 15+.

Hope not, though.

Roger

 

names please!
Personally I think Peak rail is doomed because their project to reconnect to Buxton is now a dead duck for a lot of reasons ( opposition of local councils, of Sustrans, bridges to rebuild(A6) encrochment at Bakewell ........and above all a sheer amount of money!!
regards
noel