The Challenges of the 2022 Heritage Season

Thoughts............

Covid, and all that means
Coal Prices
Inflation, in particular energy/fuel
Potential ramifications of events in the Ukraine

How might it all work out?

 

It possible some the big engines would get made to pull fright trains if there is an atom weapon used. I would think 8f 9f and all s160 will get taken for this work

 

If .....

 

I would hope that all railways are looking long and hard at their timetables. They need to ensure that every service earns its keep - no more towing fresh air up and down. The imitation 'BR' type of operation - publish a year's timetable and keep running it willy-nilly is a sure route to Carey Street in current circumstances.
I imagine that coal usage will be a major consideration, as well.
Pat

 

I'd like to see the continued development of the alternative coals currently under trail.

From an operational standpoint? I think maybe some leaner timetables, some higher fares, with a few large 'all out' events to try and draw large crowds and their cash.

 

All good questions, some which were partly discussed on the WSR thread yesterday.
I think the issue is even before the events in Ukraine the other three are still unknowns.
Covid may be less in peoples minds but of course only needs some new mutation to kick things off again.
Coal again may be further impacted by the Russian situation.
The big one I think is the third, and this of course impacts passengers and the operator in differing ways.

Holidays have always seemed to be a "must have" even in hard times, but maybe this is changing as folks cannot afford to fill the car or heat the house.
Everything is going up in the last 12 hours alone BT tell me the Broadband and phone is going up £5.78 a month and my wife's EE mobile by 9.5%.
Look at the railtour market FS trip this weekend still being pushed and the Mancunian in a couple of weeks which I expected to sell out early still has seats in all classes.

The business model seems to be squeezed at both ends and despite some of our fellow members seeming to believe Heritage railways have deep pockets, like any other business they need to earn a profit.

 

Agree wholeheartedly with the sentiment. I'm sure I'm not the only one who has looked askance at images of near empty trains on days where an intensive timetable applies, moreso when such (effectively ECS) services feature double or even triple headed locos.

Where I'd raise some concern is over publishing a timetable and then not adhering to it. There is however a 'middle ground' I recall the Snowdon Mountain timetables announcing "trains will run subject to a minimum of ten passengers, or the equivalent in return fares". Presumably, the SMR had a loco or two in 'light steam' ahead of a "go/no go" decision. That struck me as being both honest and readily understood (well, for the most part!).

The 'covid' services, here and there that some have derided as 'Disneyfication' are timetabled, if not marketed such, or even running as 'all station services'. They were a response to a very specific situation, for the most part very successfully.

Combining the best features of both modes of marketed operations would seem an optimum route forward. A core guaranteed timetable, with paths in the WTT for 'only runs if necessary' services, predicated on demand on the day. Perhaps shifting the focus of catering operations to support running it that fashion could present opportunities to make a virtue out of a necessity?

 

There are some interesting ideas here but I'm not sure that some of the mare practical. Let's take the variable timetable with trains may run idea. About the only train that you can do this with is the first one and people who have turned up for it will not be best pleased if the are told it's not running. Then, once you have run a train from A to B, unless everyone comes back on that same return train you have passengers left at B not knowing when the next one will be and, indeed, if they can get back at all. It's not BR that we are talking about, although some seem to think it would be a good idea to emulate them. Then there's the volunteer crews and other staff who have given up their day. What are they going to do? Just sit around and drink tea, I suppose. That might be OK for some but not if you have for up at 04.00 and driven 70 or more miles , it isn't. And having put a loco into steam, you aren't saving a huge amount by not using it .
Sorry, having a 'perhaps' T/T is not going to win you any friends.

 

Reality check I fear. Things are no longer what they were. The situation presented offers no clear 'preferred option' and I certainly don't pretend otherwise. The question surely has to revolve around concerns over what adds to a line's financial security and what adds to it's problems. If I'm certain of one thing, it's that complacency presents as big a danger as any external factor.

If there's no problem, there's no need for any change .... obviously. Where I'm concerned is over any such determination being made with heads in holes. Should such councels prevail, my worry is that all the long years of hard work by so many could end up being no more than entries in a receivers' "assetts" column. Not a situation any among us wants to see, but an eventuality we need to take seriously and plan to negate.

Llangollen was both a close call and a wake up call. How many such events could our movement cope with in succession, never mind simultaneously?

 

The challenge is valid, but I suggest the proposed remedy not. Snowdon is a somewhat unusual operation, and in a strong position to run a conditional timetable - especially as it has the advantage of either diesels or relatively small steam locomotives to operate with.

@Steve makes an excellent point about volunteer motivation and morale, while the ability to make plans matters once at the railway. Various railways are trying various options at the moment; I will be interested to see how they all emerge blinking into 2023 as they trade off pre-booking against turn up and go; reduced timetables against suppressed demand.

 

The NYMR has cut its cloth slightly for 2022 services. The peak Gold T/T still exists for the six week summer holiday period except for the quieter Fridays and Saturdays which are reduced to a Bronze (off-peak) T/T. The main casualty is the Sunday service, which sees only one return trip Pickering to Whitby and four other trains each way between Pickering to Grosmont. My worry is the gaps this has produced in the T/T and the popularity with crews. The Pickering crew going to Whitby will now have to sit and look after a steam loco in Whitby for 2¾ hours before heading back to Pickering. They will have an eleven hour day for just 48 miles; not the best turn ever. I'm told the new Sunday T/T and reduced Fridays and Saturdays is to match demand. I can't dispute that but it is not that long ago that Saturdays and especially Sundays were busy days. Have other railways echoed this trend, I wonder?

As for the other concerns mentioned at the start of this thread, I understand that the NYMR has advanced purchased its supply of coal for 2022 so that shouldn't be a problem in the short term. Whether that is fact or fiction, I don't know though as I haven't seen it in writing. Certainly Middleton has done similar and has sufficient of the black stuff to see it through to June 2023, all purchased at a reasonable price so a winner unless the price suddenly drops. If the Santa season is anything to go by, unless there is a sudden new and more deadly variant, I think Covid will have little effect as people are desperate to get back to normality. Inflation is gathering pace but us older ones have been there before and I suggest that it had little effect on what we did day to day. We just moaned, got on with it and asked for pay rises. We went on holiday and had weekend trips to all sorts of places.

That just leaves the Ukraine situation and my thoughts on that aren't good.

 

Visitors want a ride on a steam train. The trick is to give them as much of that as possible while having fewer locos in steam per day than previously. On the MHR, for example, that's likely to mean more "one steam loco" timetables. If there's more demand than anticipated, then the railway can run some "extra" or "relief" trains fitted around the basic 1-train timetable. These "Q" paths can also be used for dining trains, special charters or freights, and could be steam or diesel hauled, depending when the operations management decide to run them and the availability of crews. Websites, Facebook, etc can be used to advertise extra trains and get some good publicity. That's a much better approach than advertising a too-frequent service and then cancelling some trains.

It will be interesting to see whether, and to what extent, the coach-tour business picks up. I suspect it will be slow and may never quite return to pre-covid levels.

One good thing to come out of the last 2 years is the adoption of pre-booked tickets. People who've booked a trip are much more likely to turn up even if the weather is either manky (they'd previously stayed home) or glorious (they'd have gone to the beach or for a walk in the mountains instead). The offer of a small discount and a reserved seat or compartment is probably enough incentive to get people to commit up front

 

Some things are more important than just trying the rinse the public of every penny they have. It might return more £££ train to only run trains on demand, or not run over the whole route or not allow people to get off at intermediate stations. What will be effect on the business long term though? Did doing those things attract passengers and volunteers? Did it make people want to come back or tell their friends to visit. Was the challenge of tight timetables, frequent stops and busy service one of the things that attracted good quality loco crews? Does making things complicated and awkward just because it suits you have an effect on passenger experience?

Some things don't always give a direct return on investment but they can be essential to the growth of your buisness. Railways need to careful of underselling their assets to just focus on the bottom line. It could be quite damaging in the long run.

Some railways think they have hit on some sort of goldmine over covid. They can run less miles and charge more for it. We are lucky they did as it helped them survive. The circumstances that made that so are changing though. Clinging on to what got you though a crisis might not be the solution to the future.

Tim

 

Spot on. So much as discussion of suggestion involving change seems anathema to some. It's one thing to represent a bygone historic era on our lines, another to believe we're still living in one. The first makes for a nice day out and amiable environment for visitors and volunteers alike, the second is a recipe for disaster.

 

The Watercress Line are mainly operating one and two train timetables for 2022 as the website calendar has recently been updated with the timetables. They still have pre-booking for the normal services as well as the Special Events. The number of tickets does appear to be limited still which is a wise idea at the moment with the dreaded lurgy still around. I wonder if the demand is there that more tickets will be made available on the day.
I am hoping to get back down the railway at last this year all being well. I have really missed the place. I haven't visited since March 2020.

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I guess it may depend on the area of the country but Friday and Monday seem to be quieter days here in Swanage in the town (out of school hols) and the SR tends not to run on those days some of the time. Friday is now really holiday accommodation changeover day in Dorset so that impacts demand as well. I have also noticed Sundays at many railways are now far quieter than say in the 1990's/2000's. I believe the SVR for example regularly has less trains and charges less for Sunday gala tickets.

I like you can remember inflation and mortgage rates way north of now 15% sticks in my mind when I had my first flat, and it was only a couple of weeks ago I was laughing with a friend about how energised folks were getting over 4 or 5% inflation. But of course back in the 70's and 80's people did not have mortgages that were more than about 2 .5 times your salary, & fuel prices were not rampant as they are now. My same friend told me today her electric has just gone from £35 a month to £64 a month and she is waiting the gas hike with trepidation. People may want to get back to pre Covid normality, but some (many?) may not be able to.
Day trips may still work for many but hotel prices seem to be rocketing, I thought the prices I checked for a possible stewarding trip in July were so high because of Wimbledon tennis, but seeing over £100 a night quoted for a Travelodge in Poole in May it seems to imply serious increases in that sector. Not sure Heritage Lines can survive just reliant on "locals".
I agree with your Ukraine analysis.

 

The railways might be able to give some free day outs to Ukraine family like I know some of them did for people from chernobble. The best railwayss are ones that give out free rides in the cab if it’s not on a train it could be when they pull one out in the morning. or shunt in at the end. Or a idea to get this furthers is when you get your ticket one could be a raffle that gives out a cab ride for fun and free. This will make the railway sound better in the news and not just after all the money. People might want to go more for these ideas. As tickets cost a lot thenchildren could get a free magnet for the price. The point is lots of little things can be done so that people chose the railways instead of going on the farm instead or the beach as the get something other than be bored

 

People fleeing a war who have lost their home and possessions will have rather higher needs than train rides for fun or cab visits. These include food, shelter, work and a sense of safety.