which LOCOS will still be with us in ten years?

Give the economic climate and the rapidly increasing age profile of volunteers, if it is possible that some railways wont survive, then will some locos be going to the "wall"..cut up or put on a plinth?

Which locos are likely to from the fleet for the summer service 2019and subsequently?

 

It could work the other way round in that there are more volunteers available due to there being less paid jobs around.

 

Now the government has decided to go to the Robert Mugabe school of economics I think most people will be to busy scraping up a couple of thousand quid for a loaf of bread to play trains!

 

Prices of steam locos might fall, like anything else in a recession, but only the real 'no hopers' are at high risk of scrapping. Falling prices might even make some neglected locos more affordable to younger people who, after the recession, might have more time and money to restore them in the long term.

 

I agree only the most knackered of wrecks are at risk, although there could be quite a few sitting around out of ticket for a while, i doubt they would be in any real danger.

 

I think an increasing number of locomotives will simply become 'abandoned', either by private owners who have lost interest and who cannot be traced, or by charitable trusts who decide to call it a day but then cannot find anyone else to take their locomotive on.

 

and just to broaden the topic a little, what about all those dozens if not hundereds of Diesels sat in sidings...will we eventually see many of these submit to the scrapyard?

 

As long as people want to own and, if possible run steam locomotives, they will all be with us in 10 years time as long as there are people about with the money and skills to do it. I'd go further and say that there will be locomotives around in 10 years time that do not yet exist or are only just being built.

 

Hopefully, how many thousands is diverted to spend on the diesels when it could be spent on steam.
Although I hope the ones that are loved are kept, some railways need a diesel de clutter.

I should think many carriages will be destroyed aswell with reducing money and increasing costs of restoring them.

 

If money gets really tight, then any individual or society that owns several locos may sell their worst loco for scrap to pay for the survival of the remainder.

 

I can't see any locos being cut up which are with us now! They might be helped in some way to keep others of their class running! And if the recession hits upon Railway preservation then I reckon they will be stored in museums or stored undercover till such time that they can be overhauled!

 

So long as the re-sale value of a loco remains higher than its breaking value then selling it rather than scrapping it is the more likely outcome if the owner is in need of the money. Locos may sometimes appear to be 'abandoned' but if a buyer appears offering cash the owners will probably be found.

Some 'no hope' locos are disappearing gradually as parts are lost or taken for spares and these are the most likely scrapping candidates since incomplete locos will always be harder to sell. But even some of these - Gervase a recent example - may come back from the dead if somebody has the cash and the vision to take them on.

But I doubt the recession will mean more locos stored undercover - there are enough rotting in the open as it is!

 

The problem facing steam railway preservation is: ticket prices have been held artificially low for decades. They in no way whatsoever reflect the costs involved in overhauling sufficient steam locomotives on a 7 - 10 year service cycle, to provide the advertises steam hauled services.
On top of all the other demands on preserved railway income.

 

this is an interesting one?
as railway workshops become more proficient at repairs, i foresee more in house restorations and less putting repairs out to tender, after all, if you have the facilities to overhaul an engine, all you have is material costs and overheads , which should work out cheaper that that contracted out job, obviously things like boiler repairs will still be contracted out as not everyone will have the luxury of a fully equipped boiler workshop , but where a railway does , there will be more reliance on their own work force
because money is going to be tighter there will be a reluctance to spend on capital works ,signalling scemes might have to be put off , that new running shed, might not get built, but the locos we have now will probally servive , the new builds will struggle to raise funds and these must be in dought, the ones that should be ok will be the ones where the major parts do exsist i think that we will see a reduction of mainline steam because of increasing costs and the necessary additions to run on network rail making it not worth the returns to run

 

Exactly..

Them that bought from woodhams in the 1980's paid around £6-10k, are now commanding £150K for the same engine in much the same condition !.. so like most others my age.. they buy a house or a diesel instead ;-)


Maybe the truth is closer to home...

Theres about 100 steam locomotives lying scrap around Poland, which i'm sure you could pick up for £10k, but no one wants them.
Here in the UK you can get an industrial for around £30k..

Neither has the "mainline uk" wow factor.