2015 Mainline Steam Review - Worst Year ever?

Sometimes this sort of analysis is the art of the possible. I don't believe the data would support a full analysis of what trips have a diesel behind or not. I think you'd have to burrow into the records of every run.

 

Thanks, very useful.

 

6024 KEI --the leisure experience. Post 39.

I think it's both. Without the silver salver people it's dead. But without the 300-400 people in standard class it's also, if not dead, then reduced to the Belmond Pullman and the like. It's the combination which makes it add up. This is why the decision making gets so fraught when the loco is unavailable, the replacement doesn't fit (or rather the computer says it might not), a late possession by NR affects the train path. One thing is sure--any decision will not please everyone. Someone should make a snakes and ladders game of putting on a successful, modestly profitable steam tour programme which runs as planned in 2016.

I think the best hope is that the operators will be able to maintain a profitable core of repeat runs over the season on a limited set of routes with the right combination of speed, line capacity and destination attractiveness. Then on the margin, you can hope to justify occasional trips like the Tin Bath, the annual trip to Boulby and so on which are more aimed towards the enthusiast market. The threats to this model are probably obvious but they include the TOCs pinching all the slots (Transpennine), the weather affecting what can reliably be offered(Scarborough), risk aversion (NR, Sellafield....). Sorry for northern examples but I expect the stories behind Canterbury, Salisbury, Weymouth are parallel.

 

I Did say which tour I was booked on behind Scotsman, it's January's Winter CME from Manchester.

 

Sorry, I managed to misread that entirely. My apologies!

 

I could not agree more.

In this neck of the woods, this year has been considerably better than most I remember. In relatively recent times - 2003, for instance, there was a total of 8 steam hauled tours over the S&C (most in one direction only). This year, in the peak of summer, you could easily get to that number in a fortnight.

 

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Thanks for the interesting analysis. I guess one further breakdown that would be revealing would be by tour operator. Obviously, everyone using WCRC took a big hit in April/May due to the suspension and there has been an issue with loco availability which has affected a number of different operators. However, using a brief sumnary rather than detailed statistics:-
Belmond has cut back on the number of steam-hauled trains, sometimes at quite short notice, but 35028 and 60163 have delivered what has been asked of them. Diesel shovage is a bit hit/miss, but I doubt if this is a problem for most passengers!
UK Railtours runs relatively little steam and uses DBS when it does so. Again, things went pretty smoothly in 2015
Torbay Express Another DBS operation. A couple of cancellations and a fairly limited programme, but I don't recall any complaints here. Tornado and Britannia performed well.
Jacobite West Coast's most regular and demanding operation. First day was diesel-hauled, but since then. no negative news that I'm aware of. The two Riley "fives" and the K1 did what was asked of them week in, week out.
Vintage Trains Hit by the WCRC suspension in April and May, but picked up the pieces, made a few changes and kept its passengers happy as usual. OK, there were problems with both 4965 and 5043 leading to the Cotswold Explorer being diesel hauled, while the Lickey Banker was cancelled due to gauging issues, but overall, I wouldn't have thought the company (or its clientele) has had too bad a year
Borders Steam (Waverley Route) Rather a one-off series and a diesel on the return leg is unaviodable due to the basic facilites at Tweedmouth, but 60009 acquitted itself well and in view of the excitement of travelling on this re-opened line, I don't think many people would have been too upset at the presence of the diesel.

This leaves RTC and SD as the two operators who have both taken the biggest "hit" with the WCRC suspension and availability issues and been subject to the most grumbles (At least, on this forum) about diesel shovage. However, even here, the picture is not uniform. RTC's West Somerset Steam Express series seems to have gone down well and 61306 delivered a couple of fine unasssisted runs for SD.

It will be interesting to see how the Icons of Steam "Hosking Belle" set will fit in to the picture when Crewe completes the overhaul of all the coaches, which, so I read somewhere, is scheduled for next year. I would have thought that it will either be operated on a similar line to VT - with locos, stock and marketing all part of the same set-up and only the train crew provided externally, or else, the trains could be marketed and administered by an existing operator (and UK Railtours would strike me as the most likely partner). A few of us who live in the south have said there isn't much on offer for 2016 in this neck of the woods to tempt us at the moment, but I am pinning my hopes on the Icons of Steam set-up (in whatever guise it takes) to plug this gap. It is surely not just on this forum that people are expressing a desire for steam trips in the south that don't start and finish at antisocial hours and which don't require a diesel on the back. We may have to wait a while for any of the five 8P locos in the Hosking stable to be ready - especially 35022 and 35027, but the four 7Ps (5029, 34046, 46100 and 70000) could all be ready to run.

Although these are only my personal thoughts (And I'm open to correction), I do think that we have good grounds for hoping that 2016 will be a better year.

 

We could even be in with a chance of seeing 46100 go out on test next Monday as she's working from Crewe to Carnforth on an engine and coach move. It's up on UK Steam but the timetable hasn't gone public yet.

 

Interesting data. It's good to see some analysis rather than the usual anecdotal chit chat.

 

I think it is a year to try and forget personally.
I have only travelled on four Rail Tours this year which is much less than previous years. Three were scheduled to be Steam Hauled but only two of these had a whiff of Steam at the front
- Travelled behind 61306 in February along the Portsmouth Direct with Diesel shoving the order of the day.
- Due to have another run behind 61306 on 9th July to Weymouth but she failed FTR. Diesel hauled instead.
- Managed to get to Weymouth behind Steam with 34067 on good form with occasional assistance in September.

Most enjoyable Trip of the year was a UK Railtours Diesel hauled excursion to the G&WSR (with bus connection) which was faultless throughout.
I am seriously considering doing quite a few of their trips next year. Business is certainly booming for UK Railtours as they have announced that they are bringing back Hertforshire Railtours next year for enthusiast Rail Tours and they will also be using Belmond's Northern Belle on a monthly basis next year.

With regards to Steam Hauled trips I will wait to see how the year starts off before booking any.
My Father want's to go on a Scotsman trip and so do I but his current comment on me booking one is "I am not going if it's shoved around by a f*!%ing diesel!"

 

Pretty much, granted everything happening with WCRC played a major part, but that matters little to the disgruntled people who will think twice about booking or playing a part in future.

2016 needs to be a vast improvement, either without or without WCRC, another repeat will probably kill off mainline steam as we know it.

 

Apart from the regulars from Bristol, there was next to nothing in the South that attracted us this year. We had some other good outings but they were mostly in the North. We are lucky enough to run a very comfortable motor caravan and I think quite a few more miles will be added next year in search of steam tours without a diesel suppository.

 

Id have to say that for 2015 is been pretty awful. Being in the north east the area has been almost deserted this year. The whole WCRC steam bans and fall out with Network Rail NE has left the area pretty much abandoned, all to the benefit of the S+C route.

 

99Z thanks for taking the time to do this. I am a bit of a data freak myself and this is exactly the sort of thing needed to encourage discussion. The bit I find interesting is the gradual increase in the steam tour offer. To go from 300 a year at the millenium to about 400 this year shows that the demand is there, but that implies a heavier footprint in terms of support. If the increasing trend continues then there will be a need for more locos and increased specialisation by all parties including the rail network. Turning this around, are some of the problems this year down to growing pains to meet customer demand ? It was certainly requested, some might say demanded, by the regulators this year that operators become more professional and that is probably the challenge for the next five years if steam railtours are to expand further

 

OK overcooked. Make it 200-300.