Main Line Steam - Possible ramifications of the WCRC suspension

Maybe. Would be an interesting development, but who knows? The water is so muddy that its getting difficult to know what's going on. Pilgrim Fathers trip on 1 July now officially postponed, with a 21-day period of notice added before we are given another update on the situation. As is probably the case with everyone else affected, other commitments means that one cannot accommodate such fluidity indefinitely.

 

While a lot is rightly being made of the GB VIII tour, there are some other interesting excursions in the pipeline. This coming Saturday (2nd May) sees the first of three Statesman Rail "Golden Arrow" workings to Canterbury, originally booked for Tangmere. The stock looks to me like either a late Mk 2 set painted in Pullman colours - a bit like the "Northern Belle" or else it may be ex- Manchester Pullman stock. Not sure which, but either way, it looks like an air-braked set. According to the Statesman Rail website, the final timings are still awaited and the company apologises "for the delay which is entirely outside the control of 'Statesman Rail'." but says nothing about a change of motive power. It will be interesting to see what happens here. If DBS are able and willing to take this one over, theoretically either 35028 or 70000 could work the stock and would be appropriate locos for a "Golden Arrow" recreation. The other two dates for these trips are 16th and 23rd May, but which time, hopefully more will be known about WCRC's future.

 

This one is now shown as cancelled on UKSteam.

 

I wonder............



And I'm more worried about the MHR bridge damage!

 

Assuming RI's Facebook post is correct and WCR remain sidelined, what is the future for mainline steam?

It seems obvious that DB are unwilling or unable to significantly increase the number of steam charters they can run....and why should they? It is not part of their core business. Stepping in to save GB8 is commendable.

Devon & Cornwall do not seem to be able to secure a passenger charter liscense.

DBS & GBRf can run steam, but I do not see them on the horizon.

I am reliably told a new charter TOC would take 6 to 8 months and a lottery-win load of money to setup, with no guarantee of returns. It seems the economics for a small start-up TOC are not exactly rosy.

If WCR remain suspended for any length of time, who will be the first to fall? Canceling a few trains in April will not have damaged the market too badly....I imagine most of the passengers will have held their bookings over to a later date...but a prolonged period of cancellations is surely going to cause a run on the promotors banks. Let's hope everyone has enough cash for the refunds, and to keep the doors open. This bank holiday weekend marks the busy season for the promotors.

Fingers crossed and keep in mind the hundreds of people who are now looking at their futures with a little more doubt this morning.

 

I think that there are very interesting times ahead, and if WCRC remain sidelined for any prolonged period of time how long can the company sustain on a zero income basis before the owners have to make some hard decisions regarding whether they can or even wish to continue.

I don't think anyone should underestimate the impact that the disappearance of WCRC would have on the main line landscape, immediately all vac only loco's would have a vastly reduced market, equally mainline steam would appear to have a very strong south focus.

I think any talk of new players would only be a long term thing, whilst there is much speculation regarding JH does he really want the hassle of running trains and the associated costs, is a steam only TOC even financially viable, I suspect none of us know to what extent the wider spot hire etc at Carnforth funds the steam side or vice versa.

 

Yep. These are uncertain times and having been on the doubled headed black 5's with Steam Dreams to Kent in December and the thrill of it all, the thought of it disappearing is unbearable. That said, we have more private steam railways that any country and so there will always be some sulphur to sniff somewhere. That said, trundling at 25mph versus racing at 75mph is no contest so fingers crossed that a postive announcement will come soon.

 

Hear hear to that, but if it isn't, we really do have to hope that the Promoters can sustain themselves in the meantime. At least while tours aren't running their outgoings will be reduced, so it's presumably mainly a case of maintaining liquidity in order to refund any monies already paid. Luckily for the RTC, they have a much wider business than just UK steam which should sustain them, SD I'm not so sure, while VT have fingers in other pies as well.

As others have said, uncertain times ahead.

 

Its a very worrying situation, if ORR have concerns about West Coasts management , then unless there is change from with in, from the very top, then i think that WCRC are finished as an operator, so for this year, you can in effect forget about anything but a few DBS tours, the only way, steam can continue as it is now, or has been,is that either another TOC, such as GBRf decides to operate a sub sector, and apply for the licence and train up some crews on steam and heritage diesels assuming it has the staff who want to learn something extra , after all EWS started off as Railfreight , or a new player enters the market but nothing can be done until 2016/17

 

no just being honest, it seems to me that its a very real chance that West Coast could find its self stripped of its licence, if ORR thinks the case is prooven then you have to look at what happens next

 

There is a useful update regarding the current (and developing) situation in the latest edition of Railway Herald which was published last night. Whilst confirming that the NR suspension remains in place, the article does give rise to some optimism in both the short and longer term. Have a read of it, it's a bit like taking a magic pill to make you feel (slightly) better in the midst of all the doom and gloom!

 

VT have contract/repair work at Tyseley so hopefully are not totally without work/income even if majorly inconvienienced, SD must be sweating though, do they do anything other than UK mainline tours ?.

 

With a healthy dose of speculation added for good measure.

 

Al--- it seems to me you are effectively calling for a review of Open Access alongside the review(s) of WCRC which are clearly going on. I don't really know the history in the detail some others here know it, but my impression is that in the 80s under BR there was a list of what might be called secondary main lines on which steam could operate plus some special events like Rainhill which were specifically agreed. Privatisation created the ORR and the open access regime and the proposition was--- accredited operators with accredited equipment can apply to NR to run a train from X to Y. The result of that, possibly not anticipated in 1994 (like lots of things) is what we have had until recently --regular steam over Shap, steam from Kings X to York for example.

Maybe reverting to secondary lines with occasional special events on the primary lines is where this might end up, but given the existence of the freight operators, Grand Central, Hull Trains, there are some pretty big players in the open access market and it's not easy to see how to get from here to there.

Apologies for speculation!

 

Well, I'm in need of a good overdose ! Pass us the pills

 

Some might say realist Ralph

 

Good question, but Marcus Robertson is no fool I'd suggest so I'm sure he's already got something up his sleeve, and who knows what other sources of income may exist during these straightened times.

Also, as I've said, you would think that while income is reduced while tours aren't running, so are many of the costs, so it may not be as bad a position as one might imagine. Trying to be an optimist,

 

Use whatever term you like but since none of us have a clue as to what is going on behind closed doors at NR and ORR, all we've got on this thread is froth and speculation based on little or no hard information.