Main Line Steam - Possible ramifications of the WCRC suspension

Well I don't think anybody has exact figures about what passengers pay per head. But if a business is telling you that they will notice a drop in millions over the season in revenue due to no Jacobite, who are we going to listen to? These are the businesses that will experience the drop in trade between off Jacobite season, and on Jacobite season. These are the businesses who regularly have to adjust their business to accommodate for the extension in season, or increase in passenger load per day (such as when the season was extended to end of October, and then the evening service introduced). May I ask what your experience in the trading economy in Mallaig is as a comparison? If certainly greater than the personal providing the soundbite, then I'm willing to call her 'tosh' too....

By looking at UKSteam, the Jacobite operated 208 services to Mallaig last year....

So £1m/208 trains, equals £4807 per train to be spent.

The evening train accounts for 65 of those runs, so 143 daytime services made up of 7 carriages. As far as I am aware, the consist for daytime is TSO, TSO, TSO, FO, FO, BSK, and RMB (all Mk1's). That's 344 seats.
Now the evening service runs, last year, as two Mk1 FO's and the following four carriages as Mk2's - RMB, BSK, TSO, TSO. That's 280 seats.

From that, we have 49,192 daytime seats, and 18,200 evening seats. Overall, 67,392 seats. £1m/67,392 = £14.84 per head to be spent in Mallaig to make a £1m difference to the economy.

But I can tell you that spend per head average to make £1m will actually be lower than the figure I have given! Why? Because the woman says Steam Trains, not just Jacobites. So let's assume she has meant solely steam services, and not just any heritage charter, you would have to account for last years Great Britain, the West Highlander, The Cathedrals Explorer, several SRPS tours, Statesmen tours and the Photographers bash as a contribution as they all made Mallaig as a steam destination.

At which point is the effect of the ban resulting in such a loss to Mallaig going to halt being fiction in your head, and you start believing the facts given from the ground?


Edit : As Nigel has mentioned too, a lot of bookings are one way coach tours, so you can effectively have the same seat sold twice, with numbers of seats affected being in the hundreds. All calculations above are made on the assumption that each seat has been sold as a full return journey for one person, and not for two people making single trips.

 

So what has Ms Sturgeon said about it? And is 7 carriages a short train or not?

 

7 carriages may be short on a one off run along the Woking - Basingstoke line, but up here in the West Highlands where they run against 2 car (and occasional 4 car) 156's to Mallaig, they are certainly not short!

 

so we have agreed then, compared to an 11 or 12 carriage excursion, its short.

 

Report in the Telegraph about the ongoing situation. Interesting to note, that the founder of Steam Dreams, says that the mainline steam industry will not be jeopardised by the outcome of any investigation against West Coast.

(Edited by moderator because of repetition with #41)

 

Okay, lets compare this to other excursions shall we?

Most of your railtours per year are coming from or going to cities. York, Exeter, Carlisle, Chester, London. All of which have dense population centres.
Fort William, population of around 10,000 (was 9,908 at 2001 Cencus) - Mallaig, 797 at the 2001 Cencus. And yet you're doing daily tours (often twice daily) of passengers between 280 -350.
So as far as impact to economy goes, the influx of 344 passengers from one train on to a village bearing 800 residents is going to make a much more obvious effect to the local market compared to 480 passengers coming off your 'White Rose' in York, a population of 197,800.
By percentage, the increase for one daytime train on the population is 43% in Mallaig, compared to 0.24% increase in population of York when the White Rose arrives. So impact on the local economy is going to be felt much more so in the West Highlands to lack of steam, compared to being felt elsewhere. Indeed, I haven't factor in that I've just taken a weekend working in to account, weekday income of two trains at Mallaig results in a near 80% rise! And this is an everyday occurrence, not a one off.

Now, on to the operation side.

The Jacobite's have a WTT path 2Yxx rather than the typical 1Zxx. The cost of taking this out over the season, against each train, is much lower than the application for a 'one-off' path.
The locomotives are based in Fort William. Generally there is 2 movements each way consisting of locomotives and stock at the start and end of season, with a movement in between for possible change of locomotive and definite change of stock. Compare this to the regular large movements of stock and locomotives for tours which see 11/12/13 carriages. Indeed, the movement from Fort William Yrd to Fort William station is negligible compared to Southall to King's Cross. Indeed, sometimes a diesel assists in the shunt at Fort William on the return of the morning and evening service, so there may be a cost of diesel fuel for that 1 mile. How much would it be for Southall to King's Cross?

The Jacobite does not operate with a support coach, equalling 7 revenue making carriages compared to on an 13 carriage train with 1 support coach, 12 revenue.

So just for a standard ticket, £34 for the 84 mile return journey. That's 40.47p per mile. On the White Rose, a RYTC tour in Dec 2013, is £79 standard class for 377 mile return trip. That's 20.95p per mile. Certainly bang for your buck as a passenger, but yet for the operating or promoting companies, that's a larger cost overhead for the one-off tour of 13 carriages compared to the 'Short' Jacobite. Indeed, add in to the equation the ECS movements, the amount of coal/water consumed over the runs and the amount of crews required (Jacobite only requires one driver, one fireman, for full return. I believe the White Rose required two pairs.).

While the extra passengers may account for some of this cost, it will not result in higher profiteering against that of the West Highland runs.

So, Short the Jacobite may be in length, but in impact it makes to local economy and operating companies profits, certainly the Jacobite is more justifiable than anything you want to throw at this discussion.

To end, Short but Sweet....

 

I think DS usually represents himself in court.
Dave

 

Well as you accept the train is short, I will accept that there might be a significant shortfall in tourist revenues in one destination on one service if the service is cancelled. Its a pity however that you couldn't have made your point without gratuitously personal sarcastic insults like

being fiction in your head

It does little to further the cause of your argument

This raises a good question however, how has one location become so financially dependent on one single operator operating from outside the country? What came first revenue wise, the railway excursion, or the destination, and if there is so much demand for this trip, why has Scotrail not stepped up to the mark in years past, because judging by the apparent demand, there is money to be made.

All this is, of course, a pointless argument because, to date, there has been no cancelled service, and if there is money to be made, then someone else will step into the breach.

 

Oh dear lord, whilst no doubt entertaining, I would think that will ultimately be a waste of time then.

 

But compared to the Brentford and Looe branch shuttles, it's enormous! What's your point? Do you think because it's not load 12 it makes it a toy train?

 

Firstly 'a sale'? Before that statement sale is not mentioned within the article - a sale of what?

Secondly why do journalists have to come up with such statements, how can Mr Harris state categorically that 'hundreds would have died' I am not doubting the seriousness of the incident but what a frankly self important statement to make!

 

I have no point, I said it was short - it is compared to all other main line steam rail excursions, and someone said I had that wrong. I don't think you can count the very rare steam rail motor tour on the Brentford line as an exemplar.

 

Yes a stupid comment.

 

It does make me wonder why there aren't more trips using that sort of model. As a prospective punter, I simply can't see the attraction of a 15 hour marathon day starting very early and arriving back very late, and I certainly couldn't convince my wife to travel on such a trip, even though she quite enjoys travel on heritage railways behind steam. But if someone promoted a nice leisurely day of a couple of hours out and a couple back, with three or four hours at a pleasant destination, it would be much more attractive and potentially easier to operate for the operator. I wonder if promoters have got so obsessed by the requirement to have enough time to serve two meals to the dining clientele that they have lost track of what might make the trip attractive to non-diners: I certainly don't want to turn an enjoyable day out into a marathon with uncertain outcome!

Incidentally, I have travelled on several rail tours abroad: in all instances they were fixed regular itinerary repeated regularly through the year; and all of them started at a decent hour in the morning (say 8 - 10am) and finished at a decent hour in the afternoon (say 4 - 6pm) with time to stretch your legs at the destination. Compare that with a typical British rail tour that often has pickups at 6 - 7 am and doesn't get back until 9 or 10pm, if you are lucky ...

Tom

 

The title of this part of the forum is "What's Going On"; as there patently is nothing going on trainwise, should this thread, along with "WCRC" Licence Suspended" be transferred to the "General Railway Chat" part of the forum?

Cheers

Alan

 

I've just skimmed through the last several pages and the discussion about what constitutes a short train to which I have nothing to add. I've also re-read the Telegraph article which, as others have already concluded, is a pretty piss-poor piece of journalism by any reckoning. There are however a couple of nuggets contained within that article that might be worth taking note of; firstly, it's interesting that Marcus of Steam Dreams not only points out that there is another steam operator, he apparently references DB Schenker by name. Secondly, the quote attributed to a Scotrail 'spokesman' would appear to be the first official comment from them since 1st April regarding the company they had contracted to run their steam services and from the tone of the quote it seems they are none too impressed with what has happened. Leaving aside The Jacobite which hasn't been a Scotrail operation for many years, my guess is that the new franchise's new steam-hauled services that were due to run in June and also the services planned for the opening weeks of the Borders railway will probably run with an (or rather the) alternative operator. Only time will tell.