Fire Risk

Just look at 4014, very rarely has anything showing from the chimney unless it's deliberate. A MN / WC/BB would be the best test bed

 

Climate's rather different to 1995 though.

 

Vintage Trains are considering it, or at least were last year.
Tyseley Locomotive Works and VT Matters

 

Don't confuse weather with Climate. Yes a warming climate means heatwaves are more likely, but warmer temperatures means the atmosphere holds more moisture too.
The long dry spring was exceptional this year and means much of last year's undergrowth has sat there and dried out providing a fire load, rather than rotting away. The warming climate could however just as easily deliver a very wet spring, as extremes in either direction are more likely.
It's weather patterns that have delivered the prolonged dry weather this year, similar to the first lockdown 5 years ago. Dry ground warms up more quickly too leading to higher temperatures, the Spanish drought a couple of years ago was directly linked to the UK's first 40c due to how quickly the air warmed up over scorched Iberia, which then moved over us.
Also a prediction - mainline steam will be around in 10 years, but much reduced and with at least one mainline oil burner to help mitigate these issues.

 

4014 oil conversion video.

 

The expertise is already being fine tuned.
https://advanced-steam.org/5at/modern-steam/modern-steam-miscellany/dlm-52-8055/

I understand that 141R1244 has been converted to burn light fuel oil instead of heavy oil from its construction.
https://www.mikado1244.ch/mikado-1244/
I think that 141R568 owned by Sir Andrew Cook is also an oil burner.

I do fear that there will be an element of "not invented here" from some elements of the railway community. Or "it didn't work last time" forgetting the different oil to be used and advances in combustion technology.
If weather conditions continue to be unstable, it may be the only way forward for mainline steam.

Cheers, Neil